Carl Mortished, International Business Editor
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A plunge in American petrol stocks to a 16-year low has prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to call on Opec to open its taps and bring more crude oil to the market before the summer.
The IEA’s warning and continued disruption to Nigerian oil exports pushed the price of Brent crude up almost a dollar to $66.67.
Continued strong petrol demand in America is confounding the oil market and yesterday the Paris-based agency pointed to 930,000 barrel per day (bpd) oil and product stock draw in the first quarter of this year.
That followed an 890,000 bpd stock draw in the fourth quarter of last year. The agency is predicting a 1.6 million bpd seasonal jump in oil product demand next month, requiring a significant increase in supplies that the IEA states “looks unlikely to happen”.
Meanwhile, the agency points to the continuing supply threats to Nigerian exports, a high petrol-yielding crude that in May suffered a further 220,000 bpd cut, on top of the continuing 600,000 bpd loss of capacity over last year.
“Reports of an imminent restart of 350,000 bpd of Forcados production seem premature in the current environment,” the IEA said, concluding that it “anticipates a thirsty market in the months ahead”.
Africa’s oil output suffered a further setback this week after a fire on Thursday at a Total-operated oilfield in Congo-Brazzaville killed two people and caused a shutdown of about 60,000 bpd. Nigeria auctioned oil exploration licences on yesterday, but drew interest mostly from little-known investors. Many potential bidders were scared off because the sale of 45 exploration blocks comes less than three weeks before the Government is due to hand over to the next administration, raising doubts over whether the deals would stand in the long term.
The IEA forecasts that nonOpec supplies of crude will increase by one million bpd in this year, recovering from last year’s weak uplift of just 0.4 million bpd and a marginal decline in nonOpec output in 2005.
Overall, world demand for oil is expected to rise by 1.8 per cent in 2007, an increase of 1.5 million bpd compared with last year’s rise in demand of 0.7 million bpd. The agency’s greater optimism about nonOpec oil output, after two years of disappointment, is based on new production from Britain, Canada and Australia.
However, the IEA admitted that its growth assumption is based on “normal” operating conditions. The previous year’s underperformance was due to unforeseen disruptions and delays, it argues.
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Bring on the nuclear reactors
William Alexander, delta, Canada
This will pale into insignificance when Iraq pass their new Hydrocarbon Law (HCL) by end of May.
How do we know this is coming?
On 28th May until 30th May 2007, there is a major Iraqi oil conference detailing the content of the new HCL (sponsored by Chevron). The "Iraq Oil, Gas, Petrochemical Summit is taking place in Dubai.
The key decision makers from the Iraqi Government will present full details of the new HCL and will be participating with the full intent of entering into contractual negotiations with all international operators.
dipbob, Midlands, UK
we should start to make sure all diesel is bio diesel and a 10% mix with normal diesel this is a simple way ro increase production of diesel.
we need smaller petrol engines with more computers and turbos and super chargers so the power is in the engine but not the fuel consumption.
its not rocket science
jay, manchester, uk
We very well may be at the beginning of what the peak oil people call "the long emergency".
Consider the recently reported decline of Mexico's primary field and the prospect of Mexico becoming a net importer within eight years.
And just how much oil do the Saudis have?
120 million bbd requirements by what, 2020? Houston, we have a problem.
Doug Peacock, Meadville, USA/PA
OPEC's "spare capacity" should be really called "Saudi Arabia's spare capacity" - the others are producing at maximum. The fact is that Saudi Arabia has been increasing the number of drilling rigs in the Kingdom at a massive rate over the past few years - all the while its oil output has been dropping and its claimed "capacity" increasing. If this excess capacity really existed, Mr Cheyney would have publicly asked them to use it during his very recent visit there. The fact that he did not signals that he know that this excess capacity is fictitious.
Let us sit back and take it in. We have reached peak production of conventional oil. From now on, we will have to do with the same oil each year before the decline sets in at an accelerating pace.
Luckily, we have an enormous amount of wastage going on - especially in the USA - and so we can find another lifestyle if we really wish.
Alfred, Ryde, Isle of Wight, UK
why should OPEC increase production to lower oil prices so americans can guzzle it away and also pollute our earth more. You dont need to be a rocket scientist to realise that with oil at $60, OPEC will receive the same revenues with half production then when oil was at $30. It makes sense to keep the oil in the ground for OPEC's children, and they will benefit through higher oil prices.
Further, if oil is above $80, we will cut back on consumption (like making all 4x4 vehicles redundant) and find alternative fuel which will also emit less carbon in the atmosphere. Surely that is what we should be doing instead of fretting about higher oil prices.
john fernandez, london, Uk