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This month, the boss of the New York-based music group visited London to talk to EMI investors. He is understood to have met Fidelity, a 7 per cent shareholder, and Aberdeen Asset Management, as well as holding a group session with some hedge funds that have shares in EMI.
Those approached indicated privately that Mr Bronfman remained surprisingly focused on the possibility of a deal with EMI, which many investors had not expected. Shareholders are not expecting progress on a deal until the uncertainty around the separate Sony-BMG merger is cleared.
Mr Bronfman was also, the investors said, optimistic about the prospects of achieving regulatory clearance from the European Commission, even at a time when Brussels may refuse to sanction any more music industry mergers. Over the summer Warner and EMI fought an intense takeover battle, in which each tried to buy the other. The tit-for-tat ended abruptly when a European court ruled that the separate Sony-BMG tie-up must be re-examined by the European Commission.
A combined Warner and EMI — the music companies behind Madonna and the Scissor Sisters, respectively — would be roughly equal in size to Sony-BMG in recorded music, although both remain behind Universal, the market leader. Brussels’s approval for the Sony-BMG merger would represent an effective green light for the British and American companies to get together after six years of trying.
Warner Music has been reluctant to release details of Mr Bronfman’s visit to London, arguing that its investor meetings are part of a wider programme of meeting “current and potential future shareholders”. However, Mr Bronfman appears to have used the opportunity to target some of EMI’s investors as part of what appears to be a strategy to try to win them round. He is not thought to have discussed a specific future bid for EMI.
Over the summer the American company made two bids for EMI, priced at 315p and 320p and valuing the British company at more than £2 billion. Last night, EMI’s share price closed at 252¼p. If the European Commission approves the Sony-BMG deal — a decision is not expected until next year — many expect Warner to come back with a new bid.
EMI is unlikely to leave the matter there. It also made two bids for Warner Music last summer at $28.50 and $31 a share. Warner Music’s shares were up 20 cents at $25.18 at the close yesterday. Both sides are keen for a tie-up because of the costs that could be cut by combining their recorded music operations. The savings have been estimated at more than £100 million a year, which would be worth 170p on the EMI share price.
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