YOU might think that Lee Daley had reason to tread more carefully. As chairman and chief executive of Saatchi & Saatchi UK, the advertising agency, he is listened to when he speaks about television, in particular television ads. But he showed little caution in giving this gloomy prediction: “The disaster is not far away for television. Metaphorically the wheels have come off.”

And what of television ads? “We’re looking at the death of the ‘TV-comes-first’ model, definitely,” he says.

Bold predictions. Yet Daley, sitting in his company’s offices in Charlotte Street, London, remains calm as he makes many such sharp — if scattered — insights. After 20 years in the industry, his clients have come to trust such statements.

The source of his consternation is the personal video recorder (PVR). Although, in principle, not different from VCRs, the digital technology makes it easier to fast-forward past ads. The integration of television listings in a PVR makes it especially user-friendly.

PVR penetration is small. The market leader is Sky Plus, a service supplied by BSkyB, 35.8 per cent owned by News Corporation, parent company of The Times. Sky Plus has 642,000 subscribers, or about 2 per cent of households. But of more concern to broadcasters is research showing that in programmes recorded by viewers, between two-thirds and 80 per cent of the ads are skipped.

Daley has no doubts that ad-skipping will end television’s dominance of the ad market. However, this is not a catastrophe for advertising in general, he says. “Our business model is not dependent on TV,” he says. “There will still be a need to deliver brand messages. Young people love brands more than ever. It’s just that technology gives them the power to ignore them more easily than ever.”

So where will ads go? Online and on DVDs, Daley says. He also points to “experiential marketing” — where the focus is on the in-store experience, as exemplified by Apple and Starbucks. “Starbucks has created a coffee experience,” he says. “They’ve turned the store into a stage, an event. The Brits are lagging behind the US in store as theatre.”

Community marketing will “grow up”, too. We might soon see the emergence of US models such as BzzAgents, where thousands of “agents” are recruited to create a buzz about a product by talking about it in their local social networks.

One campaign for a sausage company required agents to take the product to friends’ barbecues and demand that local supermarkets stock it.

Steve Henry, executive creative director of HHCL/Red Cell, says there will be a greater emphasis on content advertising in programmes such as the Pepsi music chart. “Dulux could make programmes about home improvement,” he says. “Sainsbury’s could make cooking programmes.”

Henry also cites virals — ads in the form of viral e-mails that some companies commission as spoofs of their TV campaigns in the hope that media-savvy consumers will appreciate the mock attempt to hijack the corporate message. One campaign that won recognition at January’s inaugural Viral Awards targeted over-zealous London parking inspectors.

The broadcasters, who stand to lose most from a downturn in TV advertising, are defiant in the face of PVRs. ITV says that ad sales negotiations for this year are unaffected by PVRs.

At Channel 4, Andy Barnes, director of sales, says: “People like television advertising. They want to buy products. Do I think PVRs are powerful? Yes. But will they have the effect of killing commercials? No. The advertisers don’t want it. The viewer doesn’t want it. The broadcaster doesn’t want it.”

Still, Barnes is watching the rise of PVRs closely. “We’re not sticking our heads in the sand,” he says. “The way we watch television will be fundamentally changed, but exactly how, no one knows.”

Last year, the total spent in the UK on television advertising was £3.4 billion, about 30 per cent of the advertising market — down from 32.5 per cent five years ago. Internet advertising’s share was up from 0.4 per cent in 1999 to 4.9 per cent.

“There are long-term threats to television”, says ZenithOptimedia, the buying agency that compiles the figures. “PVRs encourage people to watch more television, but ad-skipping on pre-recorded programmes . . . reduces overall ad consumption by 30 per cent.”

Daley, for one, is convinced of the future. He says: “Let’s assume TV is dead, over . . .”

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