Dan Sabbagh
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No surprise that John Hutton backed the Competition Commission. There was no political upside from any other ruling. Sky is contemplating whether to appeal, but given the noises coming from the satellite broadcaster an appeal is the way to bet.
What's raised eyebrows is that the regulator has concluded that the maximum stake that does not give rise to competition concerns is 7.5 per cent, an extremely low threshold that could trigger a wave of new referrals. That's not what the Commission meant though — it is hard to imagine trouble at 7.5 per cent in most other industries, but television has always been different.
What swung it seems to have been the attitude of Michael Grade, who eventually decided that ITV did have a problem with Sky's shareholding, even though Sky's intervention is probably what got him the job. What's interesting is to ask why the ITV chairman's attitude changed? Did it just take him time to understand the issue, or was there pressure?
As for Sky, its share purchase kept Virgin Media at bay, but its belief in long-term value in ITV (the official justification for the purchase) looks optimistic to say the least. ITV shares are down 47 per cent, and the paper loss to Sky on the entire stake is a painful £436 million. Yet, remarkably the market is sanguine is about that; it is difficult to believe that any other media group that would be viewed so indulgently.
Virgin Media, meanwhile, doesn't quite get it all its own way. A takeover of ITV looks a stretch in current markets, but the Commission has made it clear that it believes in an "all-TV market," made up of free and pay television. That's logical, and it means that Virgin will have to pass the same hurdles if it is to merge with ITV — rather than just rely on the fact that it is smaller than Sky.
The verdict: ITV gets more flexibility to try to do the deals it will have to if it is to get beyond its dependence on the unreliable advertising market. Sky moves on to fight another battle, having made clear its own interest in ITV's strategy and Virgin Media has its work cut out. And the politicians had the brains to keep out of it.
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