ITV is expected to outperform the television advertising market in 2008, after a mini-revival and the difficulties of rivals helped to deliver its best annual on-screen performance since 2001.

The share of viewing for its flagship channel ITV1 is forecast to ease by just 2 per cent in 2007, making it the best performing commercial free-to-air broadcaster. Media buyers believe the channel will do better commercially in 2008. ITV1 is expected to trade in line with the overall television advertising market, delivering revenues similar to this year’s estimated £1.22 billion. That assumes that total TV advertising remains unchanged.

Helping the channel is the weak performance of Channel 4, hurt by a less popular Big Brother, and to a lesser extent Five. Both of their core channels are expected to give up revenues in 2008. ITV, meanwhile, has been aided by strong audience figures for the rugby World Cup, and the strength of its entertainment programmes, such as The X-Factor. Channel 4, after two years taking cash from ITV, is on track to see its audience share decline by about 12 per cent. A shaky January will almost certainly follow after it canned the popular but controversial Celebrity Big Brother. One rival estimates it will lose 22 per cent of its 16-34 audience in the month.

Taking advantage of its rivals’ difficulties, ITV is throwing everything at January, with a reinvented schedule, the first that has been fully overseen by Michael Grade, its chairman. As well as bringing back News at Ten, ITV plans to invest heavily in weekend entertainment programming.

Channel 4’s core channel is expected to generate a little over £715 million this year but it could lose £35 million of that in 2008. Growth in its digital revenues will help to close the revenue gap. Five’s audience share, meanwhile, is down 10 per cent on its main channel, although it has grown slightly overall.

ITV’s digital channels are up 10 per cent, although the expectation among buyers is that ITV can grow digital revenues by a higher proportion, from last year’s £209 million to about £240 million in 2008 – which would contribute to 2 per cent advertising growth overall.

Zenith Optimedia, the media forecaster, believes that television advertising will grow by 2 per cent, but City analysts are predicting lower growth rates in the belief that the weakness in the housing market will spill over into problems for the wider economy.

JPMorgan estimates that the television market will be unchanged in 2008, based on a forecast of general GDP growth of 1.9 per cent. However, if the economy weakens dramatically the bank believes that total television advertising will ease 3 per cent.

England’s failure to qualify for the summer’s European football championships is the most obvious blot in the year ahead. The tournament, shown jointly on BBC and ITV, would have generated an extra £15 million to £20 million of revenues for ITV if England had been in the competition.

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