Almost exactly a year ago, Andy Duncan, the chief executive of Channel 4, warned that Google was on track to overtake the Big Brother broadcaster’s advertising revenues.

Ever since then, the only question has been when Google, which outperformed Channel 4 as predicted, would overtake ITV - making it the biggest recipient of advertising revenue in the UK.

Now it has emerged that on one easily understood measure, it has surpassed ITV1, Emmerdale, Formula One and all. Google will now almost certainly overhaul ITV plc, the company – digital channels included – during 2008.

In one sense it is a dramatic change: there is little doubt that Google, and internet advertising, has generated all of the growth in the past two and a half years. But at the same time, commercial television is not at the end.

Andy Duncan’s warning came just as Channel 4’s long-term financial viability was being examined by Ofcom, so he had an incentive to be alarmist. And while the communications regulator accepted that Channel 4 would come under pressure in the next decade, that was largely because the increase in the number of channels to watch would inevitably see Channel 4’s share of viewing, and hence advertising, fall.

Rather obviously, Google’s income comes from the various sponsored links, the classified advertising that has never been a competitor for the glossy, 30-second spot. Meanwhile, while ITV has suffered from a decline in advertising income – it will be about £50 million this year – that is not enough to threaten the future of the organisation.

In theory Google can’t keep growing at this pace for ever. In 2007 it is expected to generate a remarkable £379 million in advertising revenue, but it is hard to see that it will repeat that volume of improvement in 2008.

With ITV carrying many ad campaigns from online brands, the commercial broadcaster can argue that the businesses are complementary – as only ITV has the capacity to consistently deliver five million-plus audiences to advertisers in one hit.

But Google wants to expand into video advertising. The battle between ITV and Google, between television and the internet, is not quite over.

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