The Beijing Olympic Games will lift television’s share of the global advertising market to record levels next year, despite the medium losing market share in North America and parts of Europe.

According to ZenithOptimedia’s World Advertising Expenditure Forecast, which will be released today, worldwide television advertising spending in 2008 will be $182.4 billion (£89.5 billion), up from $169.9 billion this year, thanks mainly to the increasing popularity of television advertising in Asia. Television is expected to have a 38.2 per cent slice of the global advertising market in 2008.

“We expect coverage of the Olympics in Beijing to give an extra boost to television in 2008, particularly in China and its neighbours,” said a spokesman for Zenith-Optimedia, the global media buying and planning unit of Publicis, the French advertising group.

Zenith forecasts television’s share to grow by 0.5 percentage points to 41.3 per cent in China, by 0.3 points to 42.5 per cent in the Asia Pacific region and by 0.3 points to 38.2 per cent worldwide. Total advertising expenditure in China is expected to be $18.4 billion in 2008, up from $14.7 billion this year. The agency has upgraded its forecasts for internet advertising, which has grown more rapidly than expected in emerging countries. It now forecasts 30 per cent growth this year, up from a previous prediction of 28.6 per cent, thanks to the popularity of online video advertising and local search.

Zenith said that internet advertising expenditure will increase by 85 per cent between 2006 and 2009. Global internet advertising spend is forecast to be $33.7 billion in 2007 and $41.6 billion in 2008. The internet is expected to have a greater market share than radio in 2008, with global spend in radio advertising forecast to be $37.5 billion.

While Zenith is positive about worldwide advertising, it has downgraded growth forecasts for North America, citing the credit squeeze and a depressed housing market. “The continued slump in the United States’ housing market has led to a sharp drop in property and construction advertising, particularly property classifieds in newspapers,” it said.

Zenith has lowered its growth forecast for the region from 3.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent. However, North America still dominates global advertising expenditure. In 2008, total spending in the region is expected to be $195.2 billion, up from $187.4 billion this year.

There are more bullish forecasts for the rest of the world. Zenith said that growth in Central and Eastern Europe this year will be 18.3 per cent - up from a previous prediction of 16.9 per cent. Eight of the ten fastest-growing markets in the world are in this region.

The world’s fastest-growing advertising market is Serbia, which is expected to grow by 308.8 per cent from 2006 to 2009. Kazakhstan’s advertising market is this year worth close to $1 billion and Zenith said that it expected it to grow to $1.72 billion by 2009.

“These are still small advertising markets, but they are underdeveloped and there is room for significant growth,” a Zenith spokesman said.

Zenith is forecasting a $3 billion boost to global advertising from the Olympics in 2008 and another $3 billion from the Euro 2008 football championships and the US presidential elections. The agency predicts that worldwide advertising expenditure will be $453.3 billion this year, $483.8 billion in 2008 and $511.8 billion in 2009.

Sprinters

The ten fastest-growing advertising markets

2009 v 2006

% increase

Serbia 308
Qatar 214
Kazakhstan 164
Egypt 117
UAE 108
Russia 108
Ukraine 100
Moldova 100
Belarus 96
Romania 93

Source: ZenithOptimedia

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