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From Times Online
July 17, 2007

Tempus: Note of caution

Warner Music has pulled out of a deal with EMI paving the way for Terra Firma to take over - but who will be the real victor?

Dan Sabbagh, Media Editor

Warner Music's decision to pass up on EMI this time around looks a smart move.

Since Terra Firma made its 265p a share offer for EMI, the outlook for the music market has worsened and the debt market tightened up.

Right now, Terra Firma looks like it could be overpaying at 265p; if Warner had come in at 300p and been forced to wait a year for regulatory approval, the risks would have shot up.

After all, Robbie Williams may go into rehab again.

Two scenarios now emerge: if the problems prove too great for Terra Firma, Warner may well get EMI's recorded business for a knock-down price; if Guy Hands et al prove to be a genius, then he might end up buying Warner — nice for its private equity backers.

Either way, a better deal is down the track.

In Arts and Entertainment: the 2007 Mercury Prize nominees

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