WHEN England kick off their World Cup campaign in just under three weeks at Frankfurt’s Waldstadion, at least 20m England fans are expected to cheer on David Beckham and Frank Lampard.
But although the country will be united in its support of the England team, some businessmen will be hoping that England crash out of the cup early.
The World Cup is expected to provide a boost for the overall economy but if England do well, a number of companies could find that their profits are hit hard.
They would, of course, never admit it publicly — or perhaps even to themselves — but like fans who find themselves sitting at the wrong end of the ground, a number of bosses may have to sit on their hands as they watch our boys take on Paraguay, Trinidad & Tobago and Sweden in the opening stages.
They include Gerry Murphy, chief executive of Kingfisher, which owns the troubled retailer B&Q. He knows that if we are watching England we won’t be painting the front room. Another will be David Ross, the wealthy chairman of Pizza Express and Ask, who must fear that his restaurants will be empty if we all stay in to watch the footie.
Within days of Brazil lifting the World Cup in 2002, the retailer JJB Sports warned shareholders that profits would be lower than expected because England fans had been buying low-margin replica football shirts rather than other, higher-margin clothing.
JJB was castigated at the time but dozens of other companies followed suit — blaming a fall in profits or sales on what quickly became known as the “World Cup effect”.
There was Trio Holdings, the money broker, which said trading volumes had fallen as brokers switched off trading screens and turned on television screens to watch the World Cup; and the garden-centre chain Blooms of Bressingham, which claimed that we were all watching the football instead of putting in bedding plants.
The DVD rental chain Home Entertainment also got in on the act. Even more surprisingly, Aggregate Industries leapt on the bandwagon, claiming that the World Cup meant that few of us were resurfacing the drive. Geest, the food producer, even blamed falling sales of ready meals on the World Cup.
So will the effects be as widespread this time round? Comparisons with 2002 are not easy. Many of those who blamed the World Cup also cited the additional bank holiday for the Queen’s Jubilee. And the fact that the World Cup was hosted by South Korea and Japan only increased the drain on business, with early-morning games disrupting the working day.
Nick Bubb, an analyst at Evolution Securities, is expecting fewer profit warnings this year. “The games are on in the evening. It should not be as bad this time,” he said.
But most analysts agree that there will nevertheless be losers. B&Q, Homebase and Focus have all been hit hard by the downturn in consumer spending and the slowdown in the housing market.
“It is going to be a nervous few weeks,” admitted an adviser to one of the leading DIY chains. “Every week England stay in (the competition) is another week of poor sales.”
Restaurants, cinemas and theatres also look set to be hit — although takeaway restaurants could benefit. Pubs without televisions — like JD Wetherspoon — could also feel the pinch.
The picture for quoted bookmakers such as Ladbrokes and Paddy Power is more complicated. An eventual victory for England would be a disaster, with the bookies overwhelmed with patriotic bets, but so would an early exit.
But there will also be winners if England make it through to the final stages. In 2002, sales in pubs with television soared by as much as 35% — despite early-morning kick-offs. This time, with matches in the evenings, industry analysts expect an even greater rise.
Nightclubs could also benefit if England fans have something to celebrate.
Shares in DSG International, which owns Dixons and Currys, have soared in recent weeks with investors calculating that the company will get a boost from high sales of television sets ahead of the World Cup.
This month, DSG said sales of flat-screen sets had increased in volume in Currys and Dixons by 92% over the previous year.
“The World Cup is clearly having an impact on sales of televisions right now,” said John Clare, chief executive.
Richard Hyman, chairman of Verdict Research, expects supermarkets to profit as we stock up with beer and party food. “Watching football and having a beer go together,” he said.
He believes that there could also be a change in the kind of goods we buy as we switch to things that can be eaten in front of the television set.
Mobile-phone companies will also benefit if England progresses past the first round. In 2002, the mobile operator 02 cited the World Cup as the reason for a sharp increase in text messaging.
But retailers warn that an early exit by the England team could result in tons of unsold England merchandise.
A growing number of retailers, including New Look and Argos, have joined the World Cup frenzy this year by selling England-branded merchandise.
“There is more England merchandise than ever before,” said one leading high-street retailer with more than 200 branded items on the shelves. “Unless they get through to the semi- finals the market is over- saturated. You won’t be able to give away England flags when they go out,” he said.
SO you really think that England have a chance of lifting the World Cup? If you are backing Sven Göran Eriksson to lead the team to victory in Germany, forget the bookies’ miserly 8-1 winning odds and play the stock market instead with the help of this Sunday Times guide to which shares you should be buying and selling to cash in on our boys’ performance
How to share the team's success
BUY
Dixons If England defy the odds and make it to the final, we shall all be buying new television sets to watch it on
Domino’s Pizza No need to miss a moment of the action when you can get a takeaway delivered to your door
Punch Taverns While some prefer the comfort of the sofa, many England fans will watch the game in the pub
Tesco Britain’s largest retailer will profit as we invite our mates round and fill the fridge with beer for the final
SELL
Kingfisher Who is going to tile the bathroom or landscape the garden when there is an England game to watch?
Gondola Holdings If we are all watching the footie, we won’t be eating out at Pizza Express or Ask
Paddy Power An England victory would be a disaster for the bookies
Home Entertainment The DVD-rental company — which is to be renamed Choices UK — looks set to miss out as we watch Beckham & Co
