Thomas Cook, Europe’s second biggest tour operator, revealed that the swine flu outbreak in Mexico would take a £20 million chunk out of full-year profits and admitted it would miss the ambitious 2010 profit target made in the wake of its merger with MyTravel in 2007.

Profits before exceptionals rose by 39.5 per cent to £61.4 million in the three months to June 30, the group’s third quarter. That figure excludes the £12.6 million hit in the quarter from the ban on travel to Mexico in the wake of the swine flu outbreak.

The company, which had sold 70 per cent of the 130,000 holidays available, had to repatriate holidaymakers, while many who had yet to travel were rebooked to destinations including Jamaica, Cuba and Egypt.

Manny Fontenla-Novoa, Thomas Cook’s chief executive, said the swine flu impact had been more significant than anticipated. He forecast a full-year hit from the pandemic of more than £20 million.

The group, which is 53 per cent owned by Arcandor, the embattled German retailer, insisted that trading this summer remained robust. While UK bookings for the season so far were down 11 per cent, that was in line with capacity cuts, and average selling prices were up 8 per cent. The group said the recent wet weather had encouraged a flurry of late bookings.

Thomas Cook followed TUI Travel, its larger rival, in warning of a difficult outlook for the coming winter, with UK bookings down 13 per cent compared with this time last year, more than double the 6 per cent cut in capacity, albeit with prices up 4 per cent.

The group said that it was too early to predict how next summer would pan out. While it continued to anticipate further growth in profits and margins in 2010, it had abandoned its operating profit target of £480 million.

It said this target, outlined after the merger with MyTravel, had been “a longer term view of what we believed the business could achieve”.

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