At first sight, it was a banking story, with headlines about credit crunches and pictures of men and women carrying the wreckage of their careers away with them in cardboard boxes - but the fallout from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, still the most evocative failure of the economic crisis, has stretched far beyond the towers of Canary Wharf. What began as a financial drama in mid-September has become a crisis for everything from the stock market to shops to real estate ... to restaurants.

“Right up until the summer we were trading surprisingly well,” Des Gunewardena, chairman and chief executive of D&D London, said, “but since the Lehman weekend we've been down. It happened at the same time at our restaurants in London, Paris, New York and Tokyo - then a couple of weeks later it hit Copenhagen, when Kaupthing went down.” The pain might be easier for Mr Gunewardena if the outlook at his company's 30 restaurants, 23 of which are in London, was brighter, but if anything, after a Christmas blip, it is bleaker. “I'm quite optimistic about the next two to three weeks,” he said, “but after that it will get worse. I think there will be a further downturn next year and I know that the general picture at the upper end of the market is very similar.”

Or, in the words of Robin Rowland, chief executive of the YO! Sushi chain: “You're absolutely off your rocker if you project like-for-like growth next year.”

Mr Gunewardena, who confirmed that plans by Conran Holdings and HBOS to sell a stake of up to 49 per cent in D&D (the former Conran Restaurants) had been put on ice, said that he was looking at stepping up promotions in the new year. He would not, however, be replicating the offers that have become commonplace in some other high street chains. “We won't do two-for-ones, which are not our style, but we want to recognise the climate we're in. I'd rather see our restaurants full, even if that means we sacrifice a bit of profit margin.”

His analysis was echoed by other big restaurant operators. According to Graham Turner, chief executive of Tragus Group, the Café Rouge and Bella Italia operator: “January and February are going to be tough right across the economy. Money will be tighter.” He said that Bella Italia, the cheapest of the group's brands, was the one performing most robustly. “Eating out is still part of people's lives but they're pulling in their horns quite seriously.”

Mr Turner said the company, which is controlled by Blackstone Group and has 272 outlets, was being cautious on expansion, with about 17 openings in the pipeline for next year, although he said that landlords were starting to offer better deals on some sites.

Another company going down the promotions route to fill tables is Ego, a chain of nine “modern Mediterranean” eateries in the Midlands and the North, although it has opted for “value-added” offers rather than discounts or two-for-ones. James Horler, its founder and chairman, said that Ego was running a different promotion every day to drum up business, including serving diners a complimentary glass of kir royale on Tuesdays and providing children's entertainment on Sundays.

Mr Horler, formely chief executive of the La Tasca chain, expected the annual Christmas upturn to be shorter than usual: “It would normally provide three weeks of great trading, but this year it'll be ten days.” He said that, like many operators, Ego was trading robustly at weekends, but finding life rather harder on weekdays: “We're definitely seeing tougher trading in the early part of the week.”

Further evidence of trading patterns will come this week when both Carluccio's and Clapham House update investors, although the latter's core Gourmet Burger Kitchen (GBK) brand is believed to be trading strongly as consumers develop a new taste for value-for-money concepts. Analysts believe that GBK, which has an average spend of £10.50, has been enjoying like-for-like sales growth of 6 to 7 per cent since September.

Peter Backman, a market analyst for Horizons, the food service consultants, said that discounts and value-added offers were becoming commonplace as the economy worsened, but he conceded that for some businesses it would not be enough: “Unfortunately, we are likely to see more casualties in the eating-out sector.”

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