XL LEISURE may have been the highest-profile and largest casualty of the airline crisis to date, but it was not the first and is unlikely to be the last.

More than 24 airlines have gone under around the world this year as jet fuel prices have more than tripled, according to Iata, the airline trade body. Fuel has traditionally accounted for about 25% of a carrier’s costs, but is now typically 40%-50%, depending on how well a company hedges its buying.

Among the first to go was a trio of luxury airlines - Maxjet, Eos and Silverjet – set up to cater for boom-market business travellers. When the credit crunch bit and oil prices soared, they were left with heavy losses and unable to find new investors.

Next came the second-tier airlines - Zoom, a low-cost transatlantic airline based at Gatwick, and Futura, a Spanish holiday airline which went into receivership just a few days ahead of XL.

The big question is which carriers are likely to follow them down the runway of history. Alitalia, the Italian national carrier, is most analysts’ first choice. It has been bailed out by the Italian government over the past decade, but appears to be in the last chance saloon as it loses $1.4m (£780,000) a day.

Opposition from unions yesterday appeared to have scuppered a proposed rescue led by Roberto Colaninno, the industrialist who controls scooter maker Piaggio.

However, analysts say yet another bailout by the Berlusconi government cannot be ruled out.

Clouds are also gathering over SAS, the Scandinavian airline. It is in talks this weekend about a takeover by Lufthansa, which also has its eyes on BMI British Midland, the second-largest player at London’s Heathrow airport.

After Alitalia and SAS, it is an open field. Paddy Power, the bookmaker, says Alitalia is 6-4 on to go into administration, with SkyEurope (a Slovakian low-cost airline) next most likely at 5-2.

The rest of the field are long shots with Ryanair and EasyJet, the no-frills giants, at 100-1 and 66-1.

Airline industry experts say predicting which airline will go under is nearly impossible, as only are few are quoted companies. Obtaining a clear picture of the health of privately-held companies like XL Leisure is more difficult because most of the publicly-disclosed financial information is out of date.

“I think the point is that the combination of the high oil prices and falling consumer demand means that any airline without a strong balance sheet is vulnerable,” said one senior analyst.

Some industry executives think XL’s demise will make its rivals in the holiday business stronger.

The shares of Tui Travel and Thomas Cook both jumped around 7% on Friday as investors seized on the idea that less capacity in the market - XL accounted for about 10% of holiday flights from the UK - would mean higher prices and profitability.

Tour groups like Tui and Thomas Cook should, in theory, be better insulated from high oil prices and recession than their pure airline rivals.

The pair make their money as much from their tour operations and travel agency arms as their airlines.

To date, demand for holidays has not fallen as much as some had predicted, and leisure groups have been canny about reducing capacity in advance.

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