Peter Stiff
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The head of Britain's second-biggest pub operator said last night that the troubles in the sector would last at least a year.
Ted Tuppen, the chief executive of Enterprise Inns, said that a “fragile consumer” environment coupled with the smoking ban would see sales across the group's pub estate fall. “This is going to last for a year or so and won't get better in a day,” he said. “We have to recognise that people going to pubs have less money.”
Mr Tuppen said the first winter of the smoking ban was always going to be difficult and that it “clearly wasn't attractive to stand outside in the rain and smoke”.
Beer sales across the industry are thought to have declined by about 9per cent during October and November, but Enterprise, which did not give sales figures, said that its licencees were not as badly affected as that. The company has worked with its tenants to refurbish pubs and boost food offerings to protect against declining beer sales.
Enterprise Inns is the second pub group in two days to give warning of a difficult market environment caused by lower consumer spending and smokers staying at home.
Shares in the rival Punch Taverns fell to a three-year low on Wednesday after it reported weaker sales and gave a downbeat outlook for 2008.
Enterprise Inns, however, closed yesterday up 3.2 per cent, or 12.75p, at 416p, with analysts noting that its trading update could have been worse.
“This is the toughest time for pub operators in recent history,” Matthew Gerard, a leisure industry analyst at Investec, said. “With the smoking ban, consumer confidence and rising cost pressures, the company has a right to be downbeat.”
Mr Gerard said that, in light of the pressures, it would be a good result if the company could report flat profits over the winter period, as it expects. Investec has downgraded Enterprise's 2008 profit before tax forecast by 6percent to £283million.
Mr Gerard also noted that only about 40 per cent of the country's pubs were owned by listed companies and that others were likely to be struggling more because of weaker food menus and less buying muscle when negotiating beer purchases.
Brewers have been forced to raise prices in recent months as the cost of ingredients such as barley and hops has increased.
The South African company SABMiller said yesterday that underlying lager volumes in the last three months of 2007 had risen by only 4 per cent, well down on the 10 per cent rise a year before, and at the bottom of analysts' forecasts.
The world's second-biggest brewer and owner of the Miller and Peroni brands said that its price increases had offset high input costs.
SABMiller, which is bidding for the Dutch rival Grolsch, said that beer sales growth in China had slowed because of price rises and had been hit in Colombia by high interest rates.
However, sales growth rose in Russia and India, with beer becoming an increasingly popular drink. Volumes in both Europe and North America also grew.
Despite some volume growth, the overall sales slowdown triggered a selloff of the group's shares, which closed down 4.6 per cent, or 57p, at £11.87.
Analysts at Cazenove said that, although the group's beer sales had disappointed the market, it was from a high rate of previous growth and against tough comparisons.
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Having made it through the lean winter months - taking over this pub on the 8th November 2007, we are now struggling very hard in the face of rising brewery charges for beer and the chancellor's recent budget increases. I face the hard desperately disappointing fact that although my trade is growing each week I am now the most expensive pub in the area local to us and we are only a community pub. We are not an extensively refurbished plush managed house. I and my husband are currently drawing less than £100 per week. I have worked here at this pub as a Manager previous to ownership and I received 15% of the gross take. On that basis, after staff wages, on current trade figures I would receive over £750 per week as a Manager. Yet as a lessee, due to the maximum 43% achievable gp level (compared with the 56% gp from which the holding company previously benefited), I am so much more out of pocket. The next few months will see us decide whether to terminate our lease early.
Rebecca Elliott, Coventry, West Mids
As an Enterprise Inns Lessee it would be interesting to know how we can achieve an even playing field with over priced beer and upward only rent increases. With an average of 67 pub closure per month what are they going to do next. The wholesale beer prices are as high as 50% above market price and most pubs have out priced themselves out of the market making way for not only super market but bigger managed houses to offer cost price drinks forcing smaller pubs out of the even playing field. All incentives offered by Enterprise are short term (about 3 months) and really offer no hope as a life line to struggling lessee. There are 3 large Enterprise pubs in the area 2 which are shut and 2 which are bordering on closure. My pub is struggling as the empty promises of a refurb are dashed as they have no money to carry it out the work. They are not allowed to spend any money on refurbing until end of Feb as the city banks will not give them any more and this info came via my BDM.
Kevin, Bristol, South Glos