Tour operators predicted the biggest decline in the number of American tourists coming to Britain since the terrorism attacks of September 11, 2001, as the pound surged yesterday to a 26-year high against the US dollar.

While sterling’s rise to $2.10 sparked speculation of a wave of transatlantic shopping trips to New York, tourism industry chiefs charged with show-casing Britain to the rest of the world gave warning that companies in the UK may have to cut jobs.

Stephen Dowd, chief executive of UKinbound, the tourism trade association, said: “We’ve had a pretty difficult year already, given the problems with the US economy and sub-prime lending, but we’re very worried now.

“The next two to three months are crucial for bookings for next year. I spoke to a couple of inbound tour operators the other day and they have their heads in their hands wondering what they are going to do.

“For an American, investing in an overseas holiday is like buying a new car for us. It’s a one-in-every-five-years event and there are increasing concerns about the cost of coming here.

“One newspaper in the US recently ran a headline about London being the home of the $5 ice-cream – they can’t get their heads around it.”

Official figures show that the number of Americans and Canadians coming to Britain fell by 5 per cent between January and August, but UKinbound believes that the decline is closer to 8 per cent. The fall suffered in 2001 was 9 per cent.

The gloom on this side of the Atlantic is likely to be in stark contrast to tour operators rushing to welcome British holidaymakers to the US.

British Airways yesterday said it may increase the frequency of services to New York to cope with demand, and Virgin Atlantic is reporting a 16 per cent leap in bookings to the Big Apple. The Association of British Travel Agents said that the number of Britons heading to the US rose by 22 per cent in August, the latest available monthly figure.

British Airways last week illustrated how the weak US dollar can bruise and benefit UK companies at the same time.

The airline cut its revenue growth target for the year, blaming the impact of converting ticket sales in the US back into sterling. However, BA has gained when buying jet fuel, which is priced in dollars.

While Brent crude has climbed by 19 per cent in dollar terms since the start of October, the increase is only 16.5 per cent in sterling terms.

Retail experts yesterday added that those shoppers resisting the lure of a trip to the US and staying in UK high streets will also benefit, as products sourced around the world by retailers, particularly electrical goods such as flat-screen TVs, are often priced in US dollars.

Kevin Hawkins, director-general of the British Retail Consortium, said: “The dollar has been low against the pound for quite a while and this is one of the reasons for the deflation we have seen on the high street.”

Stephen Radley, chief economist of EEF, the manufacturing association, said that although exporters were “looking over their shoulder”, given the weak dollar, he was more concerned about the reasons lying behind the weakness.

He said: “Obviously the higher the pound rises the more problems it’s going to cause. But the US economy is slowing down and that is increasing worries about what will happen to the world economy, and that could hit order levels over the next year.”

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