Christine Buckley, Industrial Editor
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Business faces a “slowdown of uncertain depth and duration” this year, amid big challenges from the global economy, the CBI gives warning today.
Richard Lambert, the Director-General of the employers’ organisation, said the global credit crunch and other factors could have a tougher impact on the UK than on other economies because of its dependence on the financial sector.
He also repeated warnings that the difficulties experienced by the financial sector would spread to other parts of the economy.
Mr Lambert said higher energy and commodity prices meant that profits would be squeezed but inflation stoked, thus limiting the ability of central banks to cut interest rates to boost economies.
He said: “These are problems for the whole industrialised world, but they pose particular difficulties for the UK. The financial sector plays a big part in our economy – it represents nearly a tenth of GDP – and has made a major contribution to growth in recent years.”
The CBI recently revised its forecast for growth in 2008 down to 2 per cent as it assessed the likely medium-term impact of the credit crunch. It expects about the same level of growth next year, but it has said that the reality could turn out to be worse.
However, Mr Lambert cautioned against talking up fears over the severity of a slowdown. He said: “It is important not to exaggerate the risks. The most likely outcome for the UK is that the coming 12 months will bring a soft, as opposed to a hard, landing after two years of above-average growth. If we allow ourselves to get carried away by today’s gloomy headlines, we could talk ourselves into something much worse.”
He also said that Britain had several reasons to be optimistic amid the global financial uncertainty, including the amount of equity owned by mortgage holders. “The latest Bank of England survey shows that around 60 per cent of mortgage borrowers have more than £100,000 of equity in their homes compared to less than 10 per cent in 1993,” Mr Lambert said.
The CBI believes the prospects for employment are fair, largely because of the flexibility of the UK labour market, which makes strong use of agency and temporary workers. The CBI has repeatedly clashed with unions over the issue, with unions believing that a two-tier workforce is being created. The employers’ group recently won a victory when the European Union again failed to push through a directive that would have given agency workers the same rights as permanent employees.
Mr Lambert said: “In contrast to past decades, Britain’s flexible labour market means that employers can adjust to changes in business conditions and output, at least over the short term, without having to take on large numbers of people or make them redundant. This acts as an important force for stability in the UK economy and it is one reason why CBI members regard labour-market flexibility as such a vital part of the UK’s economic toolbox.”
The CBI forecasts that growth in Asia and India will help to stabilise the world economy. Mr Lambert said: “The global outlook remains fair, despite the likely slowdown in Europe and the US. Further strong expansion in China and India should help to push world GDP up by perhaps 4 per cent in 2008, which will support our export markets.” China and India, the CBI believes, have become the main driver of world growth as the US has slowed down.
The employers’ group also predicts that the price of carbon will operate as a sort of new currency, as high energy prices and the role of carbon pricing in the energy markets shape investment decisions.
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It is clear that the CBI believes that we are heading for a serious problem down the road but dont want to talk us into a recession. They are clever people and know that comparing amount of equity in a home today to 15 years ago without taking inflation into account is fantasy. In 1993 the average house price was below 100,000 pounds compared to todays 250,000 pounds. Comparing how many people had equity of 30,000 in 1993 to how many people had 100,000 today would be far more useful.
John, bath, uk
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK. I know now why we pay Local authority Consultants too much for what they do. Isn't the 40/60ths you mention 2/3rds?
Michael Pearson, Newcastle, UK
Mr Lambert said: âIn contrast to past decades, Britainâs flexible labour market means that employers can adjust to changes in business conditions and output"
He means there is a large number of immigrants willing to work for minimum wages or below. As the black market expands the UK will revert back to Dickensian like social conditions and the gaps will get wider.
GB and the BoE have done nothing to sort he UK's global ablity to cope with change! They have messed around with macro-economics the sort of which New Labourites see as solving issues. It is short term massaging at best.
Paul, London, Canada
and how do we spend this £100000 at tesco's next week or to pay the bills, equity withdrawal - but then how do we pay back this £100,000 - bankruptcy and repossession - it is this cycle which has got everyone in a mess in the first place
danny, warwick, england
MarkS:
I am on £55000 as a Local Authority Consultant and I have a 40/60ths index linked pension coming my way in 10 years time. It may not be considered to be particularly productive what I do (race and sex discrimination mentoring) but who is the fool you or I ?
Austin Tassletine, South West, UK
The illusion of £100,000 equity sums up why the UK economy is due for a difficult time.This figure is not rational, it assumes that peoples houses are worth what they think its worth.If the CBI think that this statistic is going to save the UK economy then they had better think again.There are many other statistics that one could use.The consumer debt mountain is 1.4 trillion,what was it in 1993?
stephen hulton, eure, france
"It is important not to exaggerate the risks. The most likely outcome for the UK is that the coming 12 months will bring a soft, as opposed to a hard, landing after two years of above-average growth"
Right, houses are overpriced by 30-40% so we are in for a soft landing are we? You also don't mention most of the growth was fueled by a credit binge.
"The latest Bank of England survey shows that around 60 per cent of mortgage borrowers have more than £100,000 of equity in their homes compared to less than 10 per cent in 1993,â Mr Lambert said."
Ahh yes compare the bottom of the last bust with the top of the current boom is really a valid method is it? Do your figures also factor in RPI inflation?
"The CBI believes the prospects for employment are fair, largely because of the flexibility of the UK labour market, which makes strong use of agency and temporary workers"
Not much use to the average UK worker when the jobs are predominantly minimum wage and taken by eastern europeans
Alex, Nottingham,
The house of cards is about to fall. Here comes third world Britain.
izhar khan, aberdeen,
It is Mr Lamberts job to lean towards optimism.
This being so,I would think that things will turn out rather worse than he predicts.
Frankly, I do not care too much about profits being squeezed,but I consider inflation,fed by unnecessary rate cuts,forced on the B of E by vested interests,to be the real threat to future prosperity.
By inflation,I do not mean the meaningless,doctored official numbers. I mean real inflation,honestly measured.
nic, royan, france
Soft landing? Heck no, beer's going up 60% this year. I'm leaving the country!
Justin, Nr. Lincoln, UK
The figures quoted for the percentage of mortgage borrowers with more than £100,000 equity in their homes is completely meaningless. In 1993 the average price of a home was well below £100,000 so, of course, only a small percentage of people had £100,000 or more in equity in their homes. After near on 200% price rises in the last 10 years, it is hardly surprising that the figure is now much higher and all the more worrying for the economy as a whole
Alex Chapman, manchester,
That £100,000 of equity could dimish quickly and significantly - what's holding it up?
I'd also say that the supposed over-dependence on the financial sector is as nothing to the dependence on a bloated, overpaid (at higher levels) and unproductive public sector.
MarkS, Leeds,
'around 60 per cent of mortgage borrowers have more than £100,000 of equity in their homes'.
Brown must already be working out how he can tax it.
David, Oxford,
It is never those with large amounts of equity in their homes that bring down markets. It is those with little equity, highly leveraged mortgages and no chance of re-financing that causes the problems. And with most home owners living in the south as that is where most people live it is not something special to have 100,000 in equity based on average prices being 275,000 - that means the average household has a mortgage ratio of 6.25% with an income of 28,620. In any downturn as noted above these ratios will get bigger. No soft landing then! But the real issue is that when the equity is reduced by even 20% it is then that the mortgage ratio to income has got even further out of kilter. Banks simply own your soul for longer and the dream is further away.
Richard Lambert is cherry picking. He notes how reliant the UK is in finance but won't come to terms with realities.
Paul, London, Canada