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Noel Forgeard and Tom Enders, the joint chief executives of EADS, the Franco-German aerospace and defence group that is the parent company of Airbus, should have been looking forward to it.
Not only would it be the pair’s first Farnborough at the top of the company, but their star product, the 550-seat A380 superjumbo, was set to wow the crowds with an impressive flying display.
Now they may instead keep a low profile. In the past week they have suffered a dramatic fall from grace, their credibility — and EADS’s share price -— taking a battering after an admission that the A380 programme was running well behind schedule.
Forgeard, in particular, is in the firing line. Not only was he in charge of Airbus before stepping up to run the parent company, but on Friday it was revealed he was one of several EADS executives to have sold shares in advance of last week’s damaging announcement.
French stock-market regulators were reported to be investigating the sale, and EADS’s board is understood to be conducting an inquiry into when the delays were discovered.
Investors reacted with horror to the A380 problems. EADS’s shares fell by nearly a quarter the next day, wiping €5 billion (£3.4 billion) off the value of the company, before recovering to finish the week at €19.80.
The news also caused apoplexy at BAE Systems, the UK defence group that owns 20% of Airbus. It is in the throes of selling its stake to EADS, and the group reacted angrily to the A380 announcement. In a statement, it said: “No assessments of the financial impact of the delays to the A380 were included in Airbus’s announcement.
“No revised budget or business plan reflecting the latest delivery plans and expectations referred to in the Airbus announcement has been either presented to, or approved by, the Shareholder Committee of Airbus.”
Privately, BAE sources questioned whether the timing of the announcement reflected an attempt by EADS executives to talk down the value of the BAE stake.
It was all so different at the previous Farnborough show, in 2004. Under Forgeard, Airbus had managed not only to peg back Boeing’s ascendancy in the airliner market, but looked to have stolen a march on its American rival.
Airbus’s market share had crept beyond the 50% mark, and with the A380 it was set finally to challenge the monopoly for large passenger aircraft that Boeing had enjoyed with its ubiquitous 747 jumbo jet for more than 30 years. But last week’s announcement changed that.
Airbus has dropped hints that all is not well with the A380 and in April said it was having difficulties with the design and installation of the airliner’s wiring systems. Plans for sophisticated in-flight entertainment systems were thought to be giving particular headaches.
On Tuesday, EADS came clean. A “bottleneck with wiring harnesses” meant there was an overall delay to the programme — already running some six months late — of another six to seven months.
The effect on A380 deliveries will be dramatic. The first customer, Singapore Airlines, will receive one, rather than two, aircraft in December.
This, industry experts say, is likely to delay the A380’s first commercial flight, from Singapore to Heathrow, which had been expected in December.
Next year only nine A380s would be delivered, rather than the 25 forecast, and in 2008 Airbus will produce between 26 and 30 planes, rather than 35. The company is now looking at plans to ramp up production in later years to catch up the delivery backlog.
“I am extremely sorry,” Forgeard said in a conference call with analysts. “I built my entire industrial career on building confidence with shareholders. This announcement comes as a big blow.”
The airlines most affected by the slowdown — Singapore, Emirates and Qantas — will now seek compensation for the delays.
Emirates, in particular, could be hard-hit. It had planned to start flying the new superjumbo next year, and has been a strong supporter, with its orders accounting for one-third of all A380 sales.
EADS’s biggest fear is that one of these cornerstone customers will turn its back on the A380.
This year Boeing launched a re-engined and stretched version of the 747 in an attempt to rob the A380 of some sales.
To date it has notched up orders mainly from cargo airlines, but a fortnight ago it quietly registered the first sale of a passenger version, to an undisclosed customer.
There are other problems lurking under the surface for EADS. Airbus’s other flagship project, the mid-sized A350, also faces problems.
Forgeard and Enders are expected to use Farnborough to relaunch the project, turning it from a revamp of an existing aircraft into an entirely new design, tentatively renamed the A370. This will not only take the cost of development from $4 billion (£2.2 billion) to perhaps double that, but also put tough demands on Airbus’s already stretched engineering resources.
While it may prove more competitive than the first A350 design, it will arrive late to the party. Airbus is unlikely to be able to deliver the all-new aircraft until 2012, four years after the rival Boeing aircraft, the 787, starts commercial flights.
Boeing scored another success last week, selling 20 787s to Singapore Airlines.
Some analysts say the slump in EADS shares has been an over-reaction. Charles Armitage at Merrill Lynch said the share price at its nadir last week implied Airbus had a market share of just 15% rather than the 50% it has won over the past five years.
“Although management credibility has clearly suffered, we do believe that the pendulum will swing back to a more realistic perception vis-a-vis Boeing, and that the (share-price) weakness represents a buying opportunity,” said Armitage.
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