Forget the ski slope-shaped industrial production charts, forget the non-farm payroll data and forget the subtle differences between a crash and a crunch. You cannot officially declare a recession in the United States until the Japan-bashing begins. Gentlemen, start your engines.

Previous Japan-bashing has been nothing if not spectacular - magnificent funeral pyres of assorted Japanese electronics, the ceremonial crucifixion of a Yamaha, or Michael Crichton's wonderfully paranoid novel Rising Sun. The latest vintage has started small and silly, but clearly has the makings of a classic.

The richly nostalgic and uncompromisingly patriotic return of Japan-bashing 2008 comes courtesy of the balding, portly and furious O.C. Welch, of Bluffton, Savannah, Georgia. The drawling Mr Welch turns out to be the proud possessor of both a small chain of Ford dealerships and some fairly forthright views on his Japanese competitors. Bursting to share them with the world, he aired these thoughts in a series of radio commercials, which in turn made it on to YouTube and the internet at large.

The phrase in the ads that has really raised the sensitive hackles of the Japanese American Citizens League was the one in which Mr Welch described Japanese cars as “rice-ready, not road-ready”. They also didn't much like his asking potential customers: “On them Japanese cars, even when they're brand new, how come they don't smell like a new car?”

It is all pretty daft and desperate stuff. Most of it can be dismissed as the rant of a small, scared man, though it is interesting to see that he has managed to shift a few more Fords because of the publicity. However, Mr Welch could just be ahead of the game. Japan-bashing and other US protectionist noises are a spasm of national guilt that goes much farther than a car showroom in Savannah. The astonishing thing is how much it seems to have rattled the Japanese carmakers, so rattledthat they would have the world believe that they stand to lose out if (or when) one of the Detroit “big three” goes under.

The reasons that Mr Welch's outburst is such nonsense barely need rehearsing, and are far beneath the corporate dignity of Toyota and its cohorts to merit a response. The Japanese car industry employs tens of thousands of Americans and has invigorated dozens of US communities. Japanese cars, for reasons of production efficiency, design standards, investment and technology, are rather more roadworthy than their US competitors, but Americans know that instinctively, and that is why (pre-crunch) they bought them in such large numbers. “New Car Smell,” by the way, is a mildly toxic combination of adhesives and sealants. Japanese manufacturers have deliberately spent money reducing the “outgassing” levels from these chemicals to prevent any harm to their customers.

And yet the Japanese are on edge. Mr Welch's - so far - lone voice of Japan-bashing has prompted the big Japanese carmakers to declare loudly and publicly how dreadfully it would damage them if one or all of GM, Chrysler or Ford were to collapse. “Tremendous damage to our business,” Toyota shivers. “Consequences for the entire industry,” Nissan gibbers. They have even persuaded analysts of the cataclysm, with Credit Suisse declaring that any advantage to Japanese carmakers of the closure of a big US rival would emerge only in the “long, long term”.

The argument that the collapse of Detroit would be bad for Japanese carmakers has two mainstays. The first is that it would put millions out of work, apocalyptically maul US consumption, and with it the Japanese carmakers' biggest market. That may be true, but it is not as if the collapse of GM or Ford implies a lack of demand for domestic car manufacture in the US - it's just that fewer Americans want their particular products. All those bankrupt dealerships, parts-making plants and assembly lines would be a tick in the “opportunities” box for Japan.

The second is that the resultant collapse of US car-parts makers, whose products are also bought by Japanese carmakers, would batter the business model of Japanese companies that manufacture in the US. Again, plausible, but probably not terrible in the long-term for the Japanese. With freight rates still at rock bottom, Toyota could temporarily ship all the parts it needed from Japan while its own domestic parts makers back home weighed up what they wanted to buy from the wreckage in Detroit and Kentucky.

Then you really would see some Japan-bashing, the kind that does not bother with the subtle verbal wit of Mr Welch, but goes straight to the “yellow peril” lexicon. In a worst-case scenario, Americans swallow the rhetoric and genuinely do start buying American.

The Japanese know this all too well, and that is why they are so outwardly keen to squash any suggestion of vulture-like anticipation of the inevitable carrion. That crucified Yamaha is not some distant memory for Japanese firms, but a constant reminder of how suddenly and violently the US consumer can switch from being their best customer into a protectionist frothing at the mouth and determined to “buy American”. Until now, the US bark has consistently been worse than its bite, and it has always quietly gone back to being the global consumer that Asia knows and loves. Japan, along with the rest of the world, is worried that this time may be different.

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