The new Nimrod is, arguably, the archetypal defence procurement project: still not in service, despite a planning process that began way back in 1992, and counting development costs that have at least doubled to £3.5 billion. When it finally takes to the skies, probably around 2009, the surveillance aircraft will be the most expensive in the RAF.
The Eurofighter began life even earlier, in 1979. First intended to fight Soviet MiGs, the RAF took its first delivery in 2003, long after the Soviet Union had crumbled, and costs have tripled to more than £20 billion.
Boeing’s C17 Globemaster III seemed, therefore, to have bucked an inglorious trend. It is noted for its reliability, it is badly needed by the military in the United States and Britain and it works, doing the job that it was designed for — and yet still something has gone awry.
In August, Boeing delivered a “stop work” order to suppliers involved in the Globemaster III — a massive military cargo aircraft that has been used heavily in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US Government has procrastinated so long in deciding the future of the C17 that Boeing moved to within 34 months of the end of scheduled production. It had to order suppliers to stop work or be lumbered with parts for aircraft that were not going to be built.
Within a week of Boeing’s shock announcement, Congress agreed to extend the C17 production run by a further ten aircraft, worth about $2 billion (£1.02 billion), giving the US Air Force a fleet of 190. However, with Boeing’s factory in Long Beach, California, producing up to 15 aircraft a year, the company is again facing the 34-month cut-off point. Early in the new year it will have to tell suppliers to stop work.
Given the financial strain of fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, there is a feeling in Washington that the USAF will be able to make do with a C17 fleet of 190 — vastly more transporters than any other nation. In addition, the USAF has more than 100 C5 Galaxies, even bigger than the C17, and about 500 C130 Hercules transporters. Yet the C5 is unreliable and the Hercules is nearing the end of its lifespan.
The uncertainty over the C17’s future has become a problem for the RAF, Canada, Australia and Nato. All have indicated that they might buy more C17s if production continued.
The RAF leased four C17s in 2001 to cover its airlifting needs, while Airbus, Boeing’s arch-rival in the civil aerospace sector, built the A400M. The RAF and Ministry of Defence (MoD) decided to convert these leases into a “buy” order this year as fears mounted that the A400M would be delayed.
The MoD has agreed to buy one more C17 next year and has told Boeing that it would like to buy a further three. However, unless the USAF also orders more aircraft, the production line is likely to shut down before a further British contract is completed. The US Government is proposing to mothball the C17 production line, which would allow it to be restarted if needed in the future, but Boeing executives told The Times that this would result in skilled workers quitting to look for other jobs.
The slowdown in orders has already left a large part of the massive factory, just a few miles from downtown Los Angeles, empty. Boeing is seeking other manufacturing work to fill the space, including automotive and other aerospace contracts, but the company may eventually decide to sell the land if the C17 is axed.
Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist at BGC, the broker, said: “The decision to mothball C17 tools and jibs when the orders are all delivered could turn out to be the most crass decision the Department of Defence has ever made.
“That the US will potentially not have a heavy-lift plane in production five years from now is a criminal sin.”
On the tarmac
900m length of runway needed for the C17 to land
75 its cargo capacity in tonnes
21 cargo capacity in tonnes of Hercules C130
The heavy lifters
C17 Globemaster III Four times larger than C130, can land on dirt runways. Came in over budget and susceptible to breakdowns, but now one of the most reliable aircraft in the USAF. Boeing is proposing the C17B if the US Government agrees to buy more of the aircraft. Would have better defence systems, be networked to satellites and unmanned surveillance aircraft, landing gear for sandy areas and more powerful engines
Hercules C130 Introduced in 1958: workhorse of air forces. The USAF and RAF plan to retire their C130s in the coming decade. The Lockheed Martin-built aircraft can land on nearly any terrain
Joint cargo aircraft Only an eighth the capacity of a C17, but becoming a popular choice with air forces in Afghanistan and Iraq because of its capability to make small hops from base to base
C5 Galaxy Capable of carrying 122 tonnes. Built by Lockheed Martin, it opens at front and back. Dogged by reliability problems. Often two C5s are allocated to missions to ensure that one arrives. USAF has nearly 120. Critics argue money should be spent on C17s rather than modernisation programme
A400M Built by Airbus for a consortium of European countries, including Britain. Half the size of the C17, but twice as big as the C130s. Britain has ordered 25 to replace the C130s. Powered by propellers, not jets
Antonov The Russian-built Antonov AN225 is the world’s largest aircraft, with a cargo capacity of 250 tonnes
Beluga The Airbus A300-600ST is possibly the world’s ugliest aircraft — hence its nickname. Introduced in 1995, but only five built. Cargo capacity of 47 tonnes
