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THE beer giant Anheuser-Busch may fend off any unsolicited bid from rival InBev by snapping up 50% of the Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo, maker of Corona.
Last week it emerged that InBev, the Belgian-based maker of Becks and Stella Artois, was considering a $50 billion (£25 billion) offer for Anheuser, Budweiser’s parent company.
Snapping up the 50% of Modelo that Anheuser does not already own would cost the company between $10 billion and $15 billion and could make Anheuser too expensive for InBev to afford, analysts say.
InBev is the world’s largest brewer by sales volume. Anheuser-Busch, the long-time giant of American brewers, holds more than 50% of the domestic market. A tie-up would create one of the world’s top five consumer-goods groups and would be the largest deal ever in the beverages industry.
InBev faces tough opposition. August Busch IV, who took over as chief executive in late 2006, is believed to have rebuffed an informal overture from Inbev last October. In April he told beer distributors that the company started by his great-great grandfather, Adolphus Busch, would not be taken over “on my watch”.
The Busch family controls only 4% of the shares, but it has tight control over the business with a board of loyal and long-serving executives. However, a $50 billion takeover offer might win over shareholders.
InBev is likely to come under pressure from investors this week to reveal its intentions towards the American brewer.
So far, it has remained tight-lipped on the speculation.
Carlos Laboy, analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote in a note to clients that a tie-up would make sense. He said: “In our scenario, both Anheuser and Modelo may be mutually motivated to come together if they felt threatened by InBev, thereby making an InBev acquisition of Anheuser harder to pull off on an unfriendly basis.”
Although InBev is unlikely to face competition hurdles in a bid, the company could face political opposition to any deal that puts the 150-year-old American brand in foreign hands.
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