Steve Hawkes, Retail Correspondent
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There are no quick fixes to the food price inflation sweeping across the high street, Alistair Darling was warned yesterday, as a top-level report said that prices could remain at record levels for the next decade.
An agricultural outlook compiled by the United Nations and the OECD said that prices for cereals, rice and oilseeds were forecast to be between 10 per cent to 35 per cent higher by 2017. It called for a co-ordinated relief effort to help developing countries and a review of the growing use of biofuels. The UN said that the global food import bill could rise by $215 billion (£109 billion) this year to a record $1 trillion. “Food is no longer the cheap commodity it was,” the report said.
In a Downing Street summit yesterday, the Chancellor urged the biggest British supermarkets to keep him informed of pricing pressures. The meeting, revealed this week by The Times, was called amid growing concerns that families in the UK would have to spend as much as £800 more on groceries this year.
Economists assert that rising food prices and energy costs account for more than half the official inflation rate of 3 per cent in the UK.
Representatives of Tesco, Asda, Marks & Spencer, the National Farmers' Union (NFU) and the British Retail Consortium told Mr Darling that there was no sign of an early end to the inflationary pressure on food prices. Lehman Brothers said that the higher prices had been caused by a fundamental shift in demand rather than speculation on commodity markets.
An Asda spokesman said: “It was an extremely productive meeting. We took the opportunity to explain to the Treasury how hard we are working to reduce food prices during these difficult times. The Government needs supermarkets to help lock down inflation. Low inflation doesn't happen by accident - it's a result of a highly advanced and competitive retail sector.”
Peter Kendall, the NFU chief executive, said: “I'm delighted that productive agriculture is back on the agenda.”
A source close to the Treasury said that all parties would be contacted again in the near future. Prices for everyday products such as bread and pasta have soared in the past year after a doubling in the price of wheat on global markets. Eggs have gone up by more than 33 per cent.
The OECD-UN report said that food prices had moved to a “higher plateau” and may not fall back to pre-crisis levels for a decade because of increasing demand from developing countries and the biofuels industry. It said that by 2017 the adjusted price of corn could be 15 per cent higher, with oilseed prices likely to increase by 33 per cent. The report said that a perfect storm of droughts, poor harvests, low stocks and a growing demand was to blame for the price spike.
From 2005 to 2007, demand for wheat and coarse grains - cereals other than wheat and rice - grew at nearly twice the rate of production, with more than half the increase of both cereals and vegetable oils attributable to the biofuels industry.
The report said: “The production shortfall, relative to trend, would in itself have been enough to send prices higher, although under ‘normal' conditions stocks would have buffered the market and dampened the price rise.
“But stocks were already low and they kept declining in 2006 and 2007 because of bad weather and low yields in major exporting countries.”
‘It’s tough out there’ says Booker chief
— Booker, one of Britain’s biggest cash and carry groups, is stepping up purchases of key commodities such as rice to guard against supply shortages
— The company said that the move was part of “keeping on our toes” in the challenging market conditions. Rice prices have climbed by 90 per cent in the past year
— Charles Wilson, chief executive, said: “Our suppliers are finding it hard and are making sure they don’t run into trouble. It’s tough out there and we have to keep on top of it all of the time.” He added that some special promotions of basmati rice were having to be rationed
— Booker supplies food, drink and tobacco to thousands of pubs, restaurants, convenience stores and independent retailers across the UK
—Pretax profits in the year to March 28 rose 27 per cent to £29.8 million on sales of £3.1 billion, up 2.3 per cent. The growth came despite a £60 million drop in tobacco sales after the smoking ban
— The group declared a maiden 0.5375p dividend
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