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The managing director of Greggs, the high street baker, has attacked speculators for driving up the price of wheat and fuelling famine in Africa.
Sir Michael Darrington, who yesterday announced that he would be stepping down after 24 years in charge, said commodity traders were more to blame for spiralling food price inflation than poor harvests or farmland given over to biofuels.
Wheat prices have doubled in the past year in an unprecedented climb that has fed through to higher prices across supermarkets, restaurants and takeaways.
Wheat hit a record $13.495 a bushel two weeks ago on speculation that farmers will not be able to meet global demand this year given poor weather.
Sir Michael said: “There are stocks of wheat and grain in the world, and crops are growing at the moment but funds are being set up as speculators see an opportunity to make some short-term money and someone has to pay for it.
“It's really sad for people in the developing world where food can account for 70 per cent of the family budget. Wheat is predominantly grown in America, Australia, Europe - the wealthier areas - and people in under-developed nations are hurting the most.”
He added: “I suppose that's just capitalism but it's jolly disappointing. If society looked down on these funds then perhaps it would make a difference.”
At Greggs, the cost inflation has pushed up prices of everything from bread rolls to iced buns by 5 per cent in the past year.
Sir Michael said that there was every chance that the business would have to put its prices up again given the inflationary pressure on ingredients such as flour, vegetable oil and protein.
Annual results yesterday showed that the higher prices had not deterred customers. Total sales rose 6.4 per cent to £586 million in the year to December 29, with sausage rolls again the bestselling product.
Pre-tax profits rose 12 per cent to a record £49 million before one-off gains from property deals. Shareholders will cash in with a full-year dividend of 140p a share, up 20.7 per cent, and higher than Greggs's 135p float price in 1984.
Greggs shares yesterday closed up 128p at £43.57.
Sir Michael said he was confident that 2008 would be another year of progress with 30 stores planned, taking the total to nearly 1,400 across the UK and Belgium.
Like-for-like sales - sales at shops open for more than a year - were up 6.2 per cent over the past ten weeks.
Greggs said that it would begin the search for a candidate to replace Sir Michael soon. The 66-year-old, who was knighted five years ago for services to business and the community, will probably step down within the next year. He said: “I've put a lot into Greggs and enjoyed it thoroughly. We have had a jolly good record.”
David Stoddart, analyst at Altium Securities, said: “He's done a blindingly good job.”
Roger Whiteside, the former chief executive of Threshers, the off-licence group, has joined Greggs as a non-executive director.
On a roll
— The price of a sausage roll has gone up from 16p to 52p in the time Sir Michael Darrington has been in charge of Greggs, but it remains the most popular product at the bakery. More than 130 million were bought by customers last year – accounting for about 11 per cent of all sales. A hot sandwich range is being introduced in 200 stores this year in the latest attempt by Greggs to adapt to changing tastes and diets.
— Greggs was founded in the 1930s by John Greggs as a family bakery on Tyneside. After floating on the stock market in 1984, the group embarked on an acquisition spree including Bakers Oven in 1994 and Birketts, a family business based in the Lake District, in 1996. Ian Gregg, the remaining family member on the board, stood down last year. He started working for the company when it had one bakery and seven delivery vans.
— Greggs began its overseas expansion five years ago in Belgium. The company has 11 stores across the Channel, concentrated in Antwerp and Leuven. Greggs chose Belgium because of its climate. Sales typically fall during hot weather. Sir Michael said: “We realised the Mediterranean was out.” He said that the US and China remain other possibilities, albeit in the “very long-term”.
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of course its got nothing to do with Europe/US farm policy rewarding farmers to keep land fallow in order to artificially control farm prices and production has it ? Remember the Wheat Mountain ? Tell me this guy isn't really the MD of Gregg's otherwise I might think he was trying to deflect attention away from his profits.
David G, Carshalton,
It's interesting to see Sir Michael take the moral ground on worldwide food issues as I don't see Greggs contributing to a healthier lifestyle in his own country. Perhaps a suitable heading could be "Who ate all the pies?".
Rob H, bromley,
Thank you David Vitner for the comment "But you can't really speculate unless there is a shortage".
In the short term, i agree that excessive speculation or manipulation can drive prices out of line (both too high and too low). In the long term, market fundamentals correct it. Case in point, the International grains council (IGC) forecast for 2008 / 2009 wheat supply and demand suggest farmers have responded to these high prices by planting more acreage to wheat. Now we just need "normal" weather in the key growing regions.
Also, on the ability of speculators, funds, or commodity indices to drive up prices. Looking at the CFTC weekly report, Index traders (commodity indices) currently own 41% of the open interest in the Chicago hog futures. Since hog prices have been selling off under the weight of a global oversupply, no one is blaming the commodity indices for owning all those hogs......
kboris, Stamford,
But you can't really speculate unless there is a shortage. If you want to know the real grain situation just look up the FAO website, the real cause of the shortage is the excess of demand. There are just too many human beings. Wheat is not like other industries, you can't work extra hours and produce more. Once the planting season finishes, then you have to wait another year. I might add the Australian climate is very unreliable, in 2003 they were net importers of Wheat.
David Vinter, Louth, Lincs., UK.
That's what speculators do! They don't care about supply and demand.
John, London,
So, basically, we're all at the mercy of the city gambling club (alias Stock Exchange). What's new?
KR, Stockport,
The problem with speculators is that they do affect the price of goods. It reminds me of stock market shares as brokers tend to drive the market price.
Marie-Claire Oliver, Bath, United Kingdom
Like Mrs A, I'm puzzled how the government manages to work out that the UK inflation rate is just 3%. Perhaps it's based on prices in the (subsidised) bars and restaurants in the Houses of Parliament. Or could it be based on MPs' outgoings (subsidised of course by their much-publicised expenses).
The official inflation rate certainly doesn't seem to be linked to the real world of house prices, fuel costs, tax rises, and supermarket prices!
Chris K, Cheltenham, UK
Classic...comlaining high input prices while making record profit . You have to blame someone else to avoid gouging accusation. All too familiar.
basara, Toronto, Canada
About time someone said this. It is immoral what is going on with wheat, grain and rice prices as speculators flock in to create another bubble and make a fast 'killing'. The trouble is that such greed is literally killing the poor of the World.
Dot.con shares, houses, gold, oil and now food - what else is left for these immoral people to try and make a buck on!?
Jan C, Swansea, UK
wheat prices have been low for years 7 usd a bushel in 1975 falling to 3 or 4 usd through the 1980s 1990s and 2000s. Only this oct prices started to rebound. Farm inputs have rose 10 times in this period. Thousands upon thousands of farmers have gone bankrupt. Many farmers need an even higher increase to catch up on unpaid bills and replace old and out dated farm equipment. if wheat kept up with inflation it should be around 50 usd per bushel at the low end of the scale.
A farm tractor which cost 10 thousand is now 100 thousand. Fuel cost 50 cents a gallon in the 70s now cost 5 dollars a gallon here in Canada. Land taxes have increased 10 fold, the list is endless.
Now if Russia Usa Europe and many others increase planting and drive prices lower ,production will fall again in a year. There is just no way anyone can grow wheat at 4 usd a bushel. If you want more then pay the price to increase production. We can supply enouf for biofuel and food if we got 50 a bushel.
monty, glentworth, sask Canada
on wounders how much kboris stands to make of weat this year?
Mr W Jones, Liverpool, England
The sad thing is that it's true and it's a human trait !
From houseowners who think their home is going up in value forever to speculators driving up the price of all sorts of commodities. The more money pours in, the more money pours in, as everyone else spots what is happening. It is only when prices reach a high that is so obviously artificial that the crash occurs. By then of course the speculators have pulled out and the rest of the investing public who have been dragged in by the media pundits are left nursing heavy losses. That's what happened when the gold price rocketed decades ago.
David Nammory, Liverpool,
Speculators (or are we supposed to say investment funds?) are also responsible for the current high prices of metals which are not reflecting economic reality
Chris, Birmingham,
what planet is the government living on if it thinks inflation is running at under 3% ? reality is hitting home all too often with news like this.
Mrs A, London, UK
The lowest ending stocks of wheat in the world since 1946/1947 (USDA, released earlier today), meanwhile feed wheat powered ethanol plants in Canada and Spain are humming away... yup, its just a bunch of speculators in Chicago at it again...
More likely a bad roll of the dice for 2 years in a row on weather for wheat production (anyone heard of the drought in Australia and a freeze in the hard red winter wheat belt of the US last spring) combined with food vs fuel (yes, ethanol does have a downside), particularly in regions where either wheat, corn, or soybeans can be grown (eastern North Dakota for instance)..
never mind that, it's those damn speculators...
just raise your prices like everyone else and pass along the effects of the food vs fuel inflation to the consumer... $108 crude oil and $15 wheat, seems about right... oh i forgot, they cant afford the gasoline / diesel to drive to your store.
kboris, stamford, ct, USA