Philip Robinson
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The usual cheer between barons of the drinks industry seems to have disappeared in the fight to control Scottish & Newcastle. In an effort to bring the Scottish board to heel this morning, the marauding consortium raiders of Carlsberg and Heineken have tweaked their hostile proposed offer by just 4.2 per cent to 750p. This is where it should have started. The opening 720p shot only served to irritate the S&N board and its shareholders. This is still insufficient to win over shareholders, given the market reaction, which lifted the shares almost 3 per cent to 762p. What changed today was that the rhetoric got a touch more aggressive.
The Vikings want to stop the sale of S&N's French wholesale business and Carlsberg has countered an S&N accusation that it is inhibiting full disclosure of the unbridled success of BBH, the joint venture between the two. Carlsberg says that it is happy to lay bare the full trading picture at anytime. Such is the intensity of feeling between the two sides that it is a wonder how the joint venture would continue to work together should S&N retain its independence.
This now looks increasingly unlikely. The strength of S&N's reaction, even after next Tuesday's planned strategy presentation, is unlikely to dampen the view that it will come down to price. Phrases such as "undervalued" and "inadequate proposal" are usually code for: up the bid and we may recommend it.
S&N's strategy presentation will also contain a trading update and — BBH aside — there is a growing feeling the numbers will not provide an ideal platform for a stout defence. Carlsberg is already polluting the atmosphere with words such as "challenging conditions" across Western Europe. But S&N has not been idle. Expect some surprises with the trading news next Tuesday. That should trigger an end to the shadow boxing and the start of the real battle. About 800p should do it.
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