Food insecurity was something we thought we had left behind us. In the developed world, food shortages were about famine in some failed African republic and pompous pop stars preening in refugee camps.

However, in the space of a few months, a rapid escalation in the price of wheat is causing a whirlwind of price increases, panic buying by government food importers and havoc among a whole range of food producers, from pig farmers to pasta makers.

It’s a reminder that consumers in the West are no longer living on a mountain of food surpluses. The intervention stocks once held by European Commission have been sold. Worldwide, wheat stocks are shrinking – the US Department of Agriculture cut its estimate again this week as it factored in weak Canadian production and a desperate crop in Australia which looks set for another parched summer.

Of course, the supermarket shelves will not really be bare of eggs and bacon in December. It all depends on what we are prepared to pay. Today, the retail giants are taking some of the pain on the chin, staving off increases in their relentless battle to lure shoppers from rival stores. In the end, however, they must succumb to market forces and make us pay for our daily bread.

Are these price increases here to stay? Food is volatile, dependent on rainfall and sunshine. The price of wheat will fall as farmers worldwide rush to plant bigger crops, but there are other forces at work which point to a longer-term shift in the cost of grain. Land is being used to produce fuel crops, the climate is changing in Australia’s wheatbelt and more people in Asia can afford to eat meat which, in turn, requires more cattlefeed.

Cheap food, cheap petrol and cheap mortgages – they were the ingredients of our easy life which is about to become more difficult.

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