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to The Sunday Times
Danone, the French food group, could bid for Numico, the Dutch baby-food manufacturer, after agreeing to sell its biscuit division to Kraft Foods, of the United States, for €5.3 billion (£3.5 billion), analysts said yesterday.
Analysts said that Numico, which is based in Amsterdam and owns Cow & Gate and Milupa Aptamil, would fit in with Danone’s ambition to reinforce its position in the health-food market.
Virginie Fernandes, an analyst with Cheuvreux in Paris, said that new acquisitions by Danone were to be expected, particularly that of Numico.
A second possible target is Wimm-Bill-Dann, the Russian dairy foods group, in which Danone already has an 18.36 per cent stake.
However, Mrs Fernandes said that the French company could itself fall prey to a takeover bid after moving to shed a biscuits business that accounts for 15.6 per cent of its revenue. Dairy products represent 54.6 per cent and beverages 28 per cent.
Cheuvreux said that PepsiCo, the American giant, which in 2005 was rumoured to be considering a bid for Danone, might renew its interest. Nestlé, of Switzerland, may also be tempted to make an offer, according to Cheuvreux.
Frank Riboud, Danone’s chief executive, sought to counter accusations that he had left the group vulnerable. “I am 1.70m [5ft 7in] myself and I have never had a complex about size,” he said, describing the biscuit unit disposal as an “action of focalisation”.
With biscuit sales falling and revenue from Danone’s other activities – and notably health food – expanding, Mr Riboud said that he was considering Kraft’s bid on an exclusive basis. “I have to manage the future, not the present,” he said. “I think this is a very important strategic movement for Danone.”
Mr Riboud refused to say how he would spend the €5.3 billion: “We have targets – not the ones you are thinking about, they are mid-sized.”
Amid political concern in France over the sale of the country’s best-known biscuit maker, which includes the iconic Lu brand, to an American group, Kraft has pledged to avoid the closure of its French factories for three years. Kraft has also promised to maintain French executives at the head of Danone’s biscuit unit.
Mr Riboud said: “I can understand the emotion of the workers and we have to take that into account, but we cannot provide more security.”
Yves Savoyat, head of the works council for Danone’s biscuit unit, said that the group had exploited French national sentiment to rebuff PepsiCo, but “now patriotism is being forgotten”.
Irene Rosenfeld, the chief executive of Kraft, said: “Purchasing Danone’s global biscuit business makes great sense for Kraft.” She said that the acquisition would reinforce Kraft’s operation in Europe and emerging markets and boost its snacks business, which generated €7.4 billion and 29 per cent of the group’s revenue in 2006. Snacks were Danone’s “fastest-growing global segment”, Ms Rosenfeld said.
Bagley, Danone’s Latin American business, and Brittannia, its India unit, are not included in the deal.
The acquisition is likely to referred to competition authorities in Brussels, but Danone said that it expected clearance by the end of the year.
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