Peter Stiff
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House prices plunged by 15.9 per cent during 2008, the biggest annual drop on record, and are set to fall even further over the coming 12 months.
According to Nationwide, the building society, the annual fall is the biggest since it began compiling data in 1991 and means the average price of a UK house is now £153,048 - £20,000 less than in December last year.
The average price of a UK home dropped by a further 2.5 per cent in December, dashing hopes that November's relatively subdued decline of 0.4 per cent marked a stabilisation in the market.
Nationwide warned that prices were likely to fall further before significant numbers of buyers returned to the market.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, estimated that house prices will fall another 15 per cent over 2009 as people continued to have difficulty in securing mortgages and saving deposits.
Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “2008 has been a year of turmoil in the UK housing market. The disruption in the financial markets worsened throughout 2008 and had larger implications for the real economy than we anticipated a year ago.
“This time last year we expected the housing market to cool quickly as affordability was poor and economic conditions looked set to weaken, but we did not anticipate the speed of house price falls or the extent of the global and domestic economic slowdown.”
She added that conditions remained highly volatile going into 2009, making it difficult to give a specific forecast for the year.
Moreover, Mrs Earley highlighted that demand from borrowers was likely to be an important factor this year, with potential buyers unwilling to make their move while they still believe house prices will fall further and worry about losing their jobs.
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Houses are investments just like any other asset such as equities saved in pension schemes. If you only have cash
& no other "assets" you will benefit from deflation since your spending power will increase. If you also have assets which exceeded in value your cash you will loose out - BIG TIME !!!
Nik, Birmingham, UK
"House prices up 110% in 5 years". Equities held in pension schemes went up by far less but have fallen by at least 30% in similar period. No wonder people are hysterical. Are you suggesting that all assets should return to "normality"
Ernest, Mijas, Spain
Mugabionic style liquidity is not being advocated. It is the Business sector as well that is affected by the shortage of Banks liquidity because they are now starved of cash to carry on trading as hitherto. I am sorry but until liquidity is restored most people are doomed to a life of penury.
John, Birmingham, UK
House prices have increased by over 110% in the past 5 years. When they fall 15.9% people turn hysterical! Just imagine the price of food increasing 110%, then the relief as prices drop back to their original level (normaility). House prices will return to normality. People are just in denial!
neil, oxford, uk
All those wanting Mugabenomic 'liquidity' sound like they are panicking about their debts! Sorry guys, why should the rest of us have our savings destroyed for your benefit?
Paul, Coventry,
Property has been over valued according to all metrics.
This is simply a reversion to the mean.
If you are highly geared I recommend you sell now to avoid high levels of stress.
alan smith, london, london
I agree with john, Milton Keynes interest rate cuts will have no effect whatsoever. We are on a downward spiral until the banks start lending again and this will NOT happen until liquidity is restored. I repeat Global quantitative easing is the only solution to REPLACE "vanished" money. Alternative?
Nik, Birmingham, UK
Contagion from housing market collapse now spreading throughout all sectors of economy. Liquidity must be restored immediately. inflation will set in but will erode Mortgages & debt, but will increase asset values i.e. property and pension funds. Interest rates then to be increased immediately.
John Wilson, Birmingham , UK
The UK housing market is in a state of panic that most commentators agree will result in a 40% fall in value from the peak values of 2007. The average house in the London has decreased by £150,000 and a loss of £300,000 is expected at the bottom of the market; interest rate cuts will have no effect
john, milton keynes,
What! No doom mongers on here gloating?
Perhaps they're all out, hunting for a property bargain.
Darren Ward, Manchester, UK
Disruption will continue even faster during 09 unless liquidity in Global banking system is restored by quantitative easing to buy up banks toxic assets & replace money which has "vanished" & before deflation takes hold. This restored liquidity will enable lending to resume & restore confidence.
Nik , Birmingham , UK