Miles Costello
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House prices will fall by a further 12 per cent next year, according to Britain's longest-established property website, adding to the gloom for the nation's struggling homeowners.
Propertyfinder.com, which was set up in 1995, yesterday became one of the few experts on the housing market to come up with a firm prediction for the extent of price falls next year. It said that the market, already skewed favourably for buyers, would be dominated by bargain-hunters, including professional buy-to-let investors and first-time buyers. The website also predicted that the property rental market would remain buoyant. Although they will initially fall, rents will begin to go up again by the end of the year, it said.
In spite of its apparently bleak prognosis, based on net mortgage lending to finance purchases reaching £40 billion next year, propertyfinder.com insisted that the worst was over in terms of the level of home sales.
The website said that expectations that the Bank of England would cut interest rates to 1 per cent by the spring should help to fuel better deals for would-be buyers and those looking to remortgage. However, the forecast is unlikely to bring much relief for homeowners, who have seen their properties' value fall by more than a fifth in some areas already.
Halifax, the lender and a leading barometer of the property market, said this month that prices had fallen 18 per cent since the summer of 2007, when the average house price touched £200,000. The average now stands at about £164,000, it said. Neither Halifax nor Nationwide, Britain's largest building society, has been prepared to predict where prices will end 2009, such has been the pace of the fall.
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I'm not sure why the term 'property ladder' is still used. A simple calculation shows that most of the time, buying only gives a positive effect on net worth after a significant period, 17+ years in the case of the rental that I'm in. So a useful ladder is only be a few rungs at best.
Joe, London, UK
Richard, Frimley, Surrey
Strange logic. If inflation kicks -in, living costs head for the sky and there'll be no spare cash to pay a mortgage, hence house prices will dive even more.
Np, England, UK
I'm counting on it peterj, heh.
Martin, there are quite few government-funded schemes on the market that allow you to by without any deposit. So for people like us(joned income 40-50K) it actually makes it possible to get on the property ladder.
Lukasz, Kingston upon Thames,
UK Property has fallen 18% and the pound by 25% against the dollar, so a 400k house last year now costs 246k if you're paid in US dollars. Que the US, Middle and Far Eastern cash buyers...
Justin, Dammam, KSA
Sterling is down 30% ( = cost of imports rising rapidly) and the BoE is printing money at a record pace, how long before inflation REALLY takes off? To protect their shrinking savings people will rush into property - they always do - the next housing boom will be arriving in about 6 months time.
Richard, Frimley, Surrey
Amusing to see how many of you think you are all fortune tellers. Nobody knows what will actually happen, but logic leads to a levelling off and recovery eventually. Many original prices were too optimistic so a lot of the falls in prices are not actual falls in achieved sales, only asking prices.
Tom H-B, South Belgravia,
Stretch yourself to take a 1% interest mortage on the house of your dreams and watch your dream crash and burn as in two years interest rates go up ten times when inflation kicks in.
Low interest rates might be a reason to buy a new sofa. They should not be a reason to buy a house.
Michael, London, UK
Property got us into this mess, so on the balance of probability, it aint going to get us out .
ronnie, Bridego Bridge, Uk
Of course, it's doesn't take Einstein to figure you that the prices of property are in a free fall. I put 20% down on every property that I have ever purchased. Prices are dropping like a rock bu no one has 20% to put down right now.
Paul Bahre, Granby, CT, USA
The real fall in selling prices last year was around 15% not 8%, we sold at 20% down on peak prices and 3 other couples we know sold this year at similar discounts. Suspect like all stats these are gently massaged to get the most optomistic result for the vested interests. Next year will be -20%
Steve, London, UK
If sterling starts to free fall next year (Labour's addictive borrow-and-waste cycle), property may start to look attractive to east europeans!
So property prices may indeed only fall by 10% in 2009.
peterj, aberdeen, uk
Three x income and 25% down is where mortgages should have been all the time. Breaking those rules have been one of the big reasons we're in the mess we're in now, on both sides of the Atlantic.
alice, salado, us/tx
Wishful thinking propertyfinder. Buy-to-let people have all been burned and where on earth will first time buyers find the huge deposits now required by our helpful banks?
Martin Wallace, Auchterarder,
There is absolutely no way that anyone should trust a property site of any kind that relies on estate agency advertising to survive. The banks won't be opening their doors for loans again until the end of 2010, and it is completely irresponsible of these sites to say otherwise.
Frank, London,
Bargain hunters and BLT's buying properties! The worst over! Yeah right! BLT's are a dying breed having caught not just a cold but pnemonia! And as for bargain hunters, it's 3x income for borrowers now! Another 25% at least before house prices reach bottom!
sophie smith, london, uk
Sorry but with the economy falling fast I think only a 12% fall is far to small.
Gavin, London,