Jenny Davey
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TWO of Britain’s biggest housebuilders are expected to trigger fresh worries over the state of the housing market this week by confirming that reservation levels at their developments have plunged by more than 20% compared with a year ago.
Persimmon and Barratt, which report financial results this week, are tipped by City analysts to caution that reservation levels have dropped by 20%-30% as buyers struggle to secure attractive home loans following a clamp-down on riskier mortgages.
Despite the expected bad news on forward reservations, both companies are likely to say that visitor levels to their sales sites remain robust and that average selling prices are holding reasonably firm even though incentives have ticked up.
Barratt is offering first-time buyers the opportunity to buy 100% of a property for 75% of the purchase price through an interest-free loan under its Dreamstart scheme.
The recent cut in interest rates is thought to have led to a slight improvement in buyer activity since January.
Both builders are expected to say they are optimistic that conditions will improve in the second half of the year. Analysts also expect them to say they are increasing dividend payments.
Since its £2.2 billion takeover of Wilson Bowden last year, Barratt has axed more than 400 jobs. Persimmon is expected to confirm this week that it has slashed hundreds of jobs after merging regional offices.
The number of homes built this year will be significantly down on 2007 levels. The latest statistics from the National House Building Council show that private-housing construction starts plunged by 40% during January compared with a year ago, to 9,135 homes.
The snowballing bad news prompted Alastair Stewart, analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort, to claim last week that Britain’s housing market was a “pack of cards” set to tumble because of “reckless lending” and “overbuilding” of flats.
The projections came as it emerged that Barratt was carrying out a strategic review of Wilson Bowden Developments, the commercial-property arm it acquired in the takeover. It is understood there has been a string of unsolicited approaches for the division in the past few months.
Only last year Barratt cited increased access to commercial and mixed-use developments as one of the reasons why it paid a staggering £816.7m of goodwill as part of the Wilson Bowden takeover.
But now City sources say the Barratt management team regards the division as a “noncore” operation, but insists that no formal decision about a sale has been taken.
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I was having a look at City AM (a City free newspaper) they ran short 2 stories one day last week saying house prices would pickup. Other newspapers were more objective about the results reported last week. City AM paper had 24 pages in total and 8 pages of adverts from house builders. A vested interest?
Newspapers are heavily funded by property developers, when they stopping paying the papers the spin will stop and house prices will fall further. There was momentum going up, there will be momentum going down.
Robin, London,
The question is indeed affordability. The country still needs homes but people can't afford them at current inflated levels. It seems a little criminal that housebuilders will probably slow down building to such extent that the market tightness will keep prices at the current levels. Planning permission needs to be more strictly time limited to allow such gaming with the basic utility of having a home.
Gabi, Manchester,
Not much "robust" thinking going on amongst the vested interests. Plenty of wishful thinking though.
David, guildford,
If housebuilders were not forced into building social housing at their own expence then they would be able to reduce the price of their open market homes to make them more affordable!
Imagine if car manufacturers were forced to give every 3rd car they produced to someone who couldnt afford one,or supermarkets that had to give away free food to people just because they were hungry!
Why the housebuilding industry does not stand up to the government on this outragous concept is a mystery.The government gets away with it because via the local planning authorities it holds developers to ransom on issuing planning consents.
The wider political agenda is to force the housebuilding industry to become social housing contractors!
Stephen Wicks, Rickmansworth, UK
It is not suprising that the sales prices are remaining "reasonably firm" with incentives like dreamstart. This clearly overinflates the value of the property. A house that you pay £100k for with dreamstart is actually worth £75k, major misselling in my opinion.
Rich, Birmingham,
Nonsense!
Its different this time. There is more immigration, less land, more single people...
Alistairs Solicitors, Bristol, UK
These companies were selling homes 6 years ago at HALF the price and they were making good profits then. The last few years has been a bonanza for developers with their over crowed deployments in undesirable locations selling for sky high prices. The party is now over.
The supply/demand augment is now on its last legs.
The demand for 8x income priced homes is over.
The likes of Barrett and Whimpey will just have to offer homes priced at 3.5x income again.
A Harris, Kettering, UK
They are getting what they deserve. Building Firms like Banks, Building Societies and Estate Agents have milked and manipulated the general public for years. It is payback time and it will not only be a financial payback when the dust settles - Some will go to jail. If people think things are bad now then wait till the summer. The chickens will be home and roosting by then.
Paul, Blackpool,
Agreed. The robust 'light at the end of the tunnel' for the housing market looks like a train coming the other way.
Nick, Weymouth,
there's that word again "robust' mmm
peter, reading, berks