Dominic Walsh
2 for 1 tickets to Casablanca, this coming Monday
A rush by homeowners to put properties on the market ahead of the introduction of Home Information Packs (Hips) has pulled down the average of cost of a house which has fallen for the third month in a row.
According to figures out today from Rightmove, the property website, house prices are rising at their slowest rate for two years.
Almost £2,000 was wiped off the average value of a home in England and Wales during the five weeks to January 12, as prices dropped by 0.8 per cent to £230,428.
At the same time, annual house price inflation continued its downward trend, sinking to 3.4 per cent, its lowest level since December 2005.
However, Rightmove said there were signs this month of a recovery in the market as homeowners had rushed to put their homes up for sale ahead of the December 14 deadline for the introduction of Hips for properties with one and two bedrooms.
It said that this surge had reduced the average cost of a property on the market.
The company added that there had been a “marked increase” in activity and prices immediately after the new year as a result of lower prices and falling interest rates.
Miles Shipside, the commercial director of Rightmove, said: “Some homebuyers are now able to find properties that have fallen into their affordability zone, and are bagging what they see as bargains against previous prices.
“Some properties have had their prices dropped by 10 per cent or more and are now within reach, satisfying some of the pent-up demand from previous disenfranchised buyers.”
The amount of time a property remains on the market came down slightly this month to 95 days, down from a peak of 98 days in December.
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Other than banks now lending only to people with real incomes and healthy deposits i.e. removing 50% of previous buyers from the market, the one big difference between now and the previous house price crash of the 90's is the Internet.
It only takes 30 seconds to check what someone paid for their house and roughly how much "profit" they hope to make.
Better communications will make buyer confidence evaporate faster than ever before.
Eddie, Harrogate, UK
Ron,
"it is clear to me we will in the short, medium and long term have a supply which is unlikely EVER to meet the demand."
O level economics says that supply always meets demand.
Proof: I have not seen (too many) people sleeping on sidewalks here where I live in Central London. Therefore I am afraid there is no pent-up demand.
Roger, Richmond,
Ron Kennor.
Methinks you left out the key part...ability to pay drives demand.
This ability to pay was based on excessively cheap credit. That has now ended.
All business cycles are linked to asset pricec cylces that are linked to credit cycles.
When credit disappears so does the funding, so does confidence, so does cheap credit and the bubble deflates.
Using your own example of supply and demand. Centuries ago everyone in the UK wanted pepper and there was not enough, so it was very expensive. That goes with what you said. BUT the only people who could buy it were the ones with money...that is where the above supply and demand argument falls down.
Shortage of land, increasing population, rising incomes, lack of planning permission, robust economy, low interest rates? Great, All applied to Japan (Tokyo), Manhatten, Singapore, Hong Kong etc etc. Please feel free to go and research their property markets. It will negate your housing invulnerability theory.
Trevor, West London,
Rightmove are owned by estate agents --what they say should be viewed in that context; no estate agent is going to be suggesting house prices will fall further , otherwise who but the absolutely desperate or mad would buy now.
House prices will fall by 5-10 % this year --which will bring us back to the prices of about two years ago unless we have a recession in the US when the knock on effect could be greater.
Mike, Windsor, UK
UK house prices are over over valued. The salary inflation is well below the house price inflation. Affordibility is key. Cost of living is on the up, money maket is tight, house reprocession up, unemployement is rising (who trust the government's statistics), investors have lost lots of money in the Northern Rock + shares of others. The city is cutting at least 5000 jobs. The oil industry is hot but they are cutting jobs too - why ? the margin in this industry is getting smaller as the oil rich countries (incl the UK government) want more for their resouces through high tax, less profit sharing to oil investors, construction cost have rised over 60% in the last 3 years, what oil companies do, cut costs and hence cut heads. Estate agents together with sellers are still in denial mode but not for too long.
Lin Roger, London,
There seems to be a lot of highly qualified and well resourced âexperts on the property marketâ working for the media who are indeed highly educated but have no association with, and little knowledge of, our housing market.
Many years prior to becoming an estate agent my limited education in their field was basic âOâ level economics, the foundation of which stated that any market price is the equilibrium point between supply and demand. As far as I know this golden rule still applies to all products - apart, it seems, to house prices in the UK where some economists are disregarding it.
We have a growing population becoming wealthier with high expectations of an improving standard of living and a tendency to live in smaller families. Combine this with a shortage of building land, created by our planning system and the ultimate physical restrictions of our island, and it is clear to me we will in the short, medium and long term have a supply which is unlikely EVER to meet the demand.
The stock market may be in turmoil because itâs comparatively easy to issue and print more shares and is driven by the by the emotions of fear and greed. Apart from food and water shelter, in the form of a comfortable home is, and will always be, the number 1 essential priority for all of us almost regardless of the sacrifices made to obtain it.
It seems to me the economists are treating housing as just another commodity which can be freely bought and sold and are missing the essential importance of a family home which continues to defy their predictions of a mass sell off forcing prices down. In reality, of course there is no surplus in the UK to allow this to happen - unlike other markets which are much more fluid and well stocked as currently in Spain, and the US where the problems began.
Any slowdown in our housing market should be seen as a rare buying opportunity for those who need to buy a home, sooner rather than later when history demonstrates it will cost them more.
Through the mists of time I also remember my O level economics teacher talking about substitutes like the price of margarine rising with the price of butter. As far as I can see there is no comparable substitute for a place to live. And anyway, I could always Stork from butter as I think the buying public can tell the difference between volatility and validity.
Ron Kennor
Ron Kennor, SIDCUP, UK
I'm sorry but this story is very lazy journalism. Rightmove are hardly a balanced source of information for an article about the housing market.
Andy Brown, Bath,
Salaries are not rising catching up if prices just stabilise. If the main driver of rises was easy money, and this came from growing income multiples, and these are being slashed, how will prices remain stable? All these limits were reached before the crunch, A fixed rate mortgage of any high street lender is currently higher than it was in August. As affordability has been stretched since 2006, and they are saying actual prices have not fallen, I would like to know who the bargain hunters are.
Prices are falling BUT I hope none feel confident that you will be buying at low risk based on Rightmove numbers. If a house was worth 200k in Jan 2007 and the Rightmove asking price fell from say 280k to 250k for the same house between Oct and Dec, that is still overvalued i.e. a price increase of 25% (from 200k to 250k). 8% being the long-run average price growth should not provide comfort. This is based on many decades of very high inflation i.e. from the 1950s to the 1980s. Infl is lower.
Raj, London,
Interesting how the annual house price inflation is now 3.4% What it fails to say is that it is on a rolling year basis, which effectively means in 4 months time, look for more like house prices fell 10% in the last year.
Too much "good news" from governments across the world has pulled the wool over most people eyes for over 10 years. Only now are we seeing the results of vast monetary inflation across the globe; food prices, energy prices, all going up....reflecting the printing of vast amounts of money for many years rather than anything to do with droubts, political tensions or anything else. This has been the fuel for the credit boom, resulting in overly inflating house prices, massive public debt.
It's been a coiling spring for a long time, now it's reached it peak.
The end of the economic world is nye.
John, Manchester,
In a falling market the proverb is "Never catch a falling knife" Anyone buying in this market is overly optimistic and could find themselves cut to shreds.
Paul Davis, York, uk
Your headline doesn't fit the article.
The only evidence in the story of increased activity is the length of time Righmove say houses are listed, but what percentage of houses removed were taken off the market by frustrated sellers rather than being sold?
A better headline would have been "House Price Slide Continues".
Tony Gould, St Albans, UK
there had been a âmarked increaseâ in .... *prices* immediately after the new year as a result of *lower prices* and falling interest rates. ...
Clear as mud!
Ben, London,
george mann, northumberland. Is this because you like tormenting estate agents (has some merit) or because you foolishly believe that the market will rebound? It won't! I saw this in the 1990s. Seller rejects a call to reduce price by 10%. Other similar properties come onto the market at 15% cheaper, seller has to reduce price by 20% to undercut and so goes the downward spiral until those sellers who hang on in there the longest end up losing the most.
Clive, Chichester, UK
Whom are you kidding?? Reignited house prices..indeed!!! It is downhill all the way for the next 3 years. No money old chaps- either with banks or with punters.
Kara Swart, London, UK
I've had many estate agents calling me, begging me to reduce the price. I won't.
george mann, northumberland,
I've reduced the price of my house twice in trying to sell it... no one wants to get into huge debt to buy, and, I can't really blame them.
Ian Sankey, London,