Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Faltering house prices staged a pre-Christmas fightback rebounding sharply after falling for the previous three months in a row, the latest snapshot of the property market from Halifax suggested this morning.
Howwever, over last year as a whole, Halifax’s data shows that British house prices climbed by 5.2 per cent, the slowest rate of growth for 12 months, with the average cost of a home rising by £11,759 to £197,039 but just failing to breach the £200,000 barrier.
This left 2007 as only the second year since 2001 when house prices have risen by less than the long-term average of 8 per cent. Halifax said average house prices had soared by 182 per cent over the past decade, almost trebling from £70,000 at the end of 1997 soon after Labour came to power, to £197,000 today.
The nation’s biggest mortgage lender said that average national house prices, based on its loans to homebuyers, jumped by 1.3 per cent during December.
The last-minute rally reversed the 1.3 per cent slump in prices that Halifax’s figures show took place in November, and also followed declines of 0.7 per cent in October, and 0.6 per cent in September.
The December bounceback means that prices were slightly lower, by 0.8 per cent, over the final quarter of last year as a whole, and confounded City forecasts that the value of the nation’s homes would succumb to a fourth consecutive decline last month.
The better than expected figures will ease mounting pressure on the Bank of England to deliver a further quarter-point cut in interest rates on Thursday, on the heels of last month’s reduction, amid fears that the sliding property market will undercut consumer spending and broader economic growth.
But the Halifax sounded a warning that the welcome news for homeowners did not signal that worries over the outlook for house prices can be dismissed and renewed its prediction that prices will remain flat, on average, of this year as a whole.
The mortgage bank said that a mixed pattern of monthly rises and falls in prices, as seen in the closing months of last year, typically seen as the housing market became more subdued.
It noted that when the boom in house prices last succumbed to a significant slowdown, between July 2004 and the following summer, its figures had shown six monthly falls in pirces, and six increases. A similar pattern was also seen during 2000.
Martin Ellis, Halifax’s chief economist, said that the market continued to cool during the final quarter of last year, pinning the blame on a combination of higher mortgage repayments after five previous interest rate increases from the Bank, and a decline in earnings after inflation. He said that both factors had put pressure on households’ incomes, depressing both prices and activity levels in the property market.
Halifax predicted that while the housing market was set to stagnate this year, with prices likely not to rise much, if at all, it would continue to find support from a broadly sound economy, despite weaker growth.
“The economy is in good health,” it said, predicting that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee was likely to deliver at least two further quarter-point cuts in interest rates over the year to bolster activity.
Halifax is forecasting that the economy will grow by between 2 and 2.5 per cent during 2008, after expanding by about 3 per cent last year, and sees some slowdown in consumer spending and company investment, but it expects employment to remain at record levels despite the modest slowdown it anticipates.
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The long term average of 8% quoted refers to nominal terms i.e. including inflation. During much of the last 50 years inflation was very high. Using the long term average in nominal terms is ridiculous in a relatively low inflation era i.e. we need to look at price increases in real terms. Then the growth over the last 10 years looks incredibly unsustainable.
The above does, however, ignore that central banks have changed the rules on what they measure s inflation and their targets (if they targetted based on similar rules used before,...even then they adjusted for changes in quality etc) that their recent record would not be as good as they like us to think.
The rise in net assets because of houses flatters the true financial position of households, as assets are only worth that much if sold BUT the debt has to be paid regardless. Why don't people with huge debt realise the lower the house price the less the debt so the less they pay. VIs are laughing.
Raj, London,
It's simple P Des,,,borrowers take the risks, savers don't. The whole point of a capitalist society is to keep stimulating competition, which is good for savers by the way, so that people are prepared to take a chance (i.e. borrow) to better their financial position. Saving money contributes the least to an economy believe it or not - hence why you are taxed on the interest.
Michael F, Sydney, Australia
I also am of the opinion that the media are trying to deliver a self fulfilling prophecy with the endless yet particularly uninteresting news about house prices. They go up a bit then down a bit then up a bit again. Only in recent years have we seen a constant upward movement. We are now just settling back into a normal market. Estate agents traditionally have 12 week contracts because that is how long they needed to sell a house. The fact they are no longer selling in 5 minutes following sealed bids, does not mean that the market is going to crash. I for one do not wish to pay the mortgage for someone else and therefore will be buying my tiny piece of Britain within the next 3 months.
Simon Cass, Portishead,
The level of unsustainable , low interest, poor equity, ninja lending over the past few years has created a false housing "value".
I bought a house in Scotland in July 2007 for £175k (cash, for Mum aged 86), which 1.3 years earlier,as a new build ,had been £165k. It had been purchased on a 125% mortgage and had two 4 figure inhibitions on the title which the mortage company (Northern Rock) elected to clear rather than lose me
as a buyer.
On any view the NR lost 30k over that transaction ,and probably a lot more, plus allowing for inflation..
The true "value" was irrelevant to Mum who has no mortgage and wanted to live near her favourite Doctor. She can see the house value drop to 4p and not care. The same canot be said for any young family with a mortgage.
Sorry kids but the price crasheth cometh and combined with the credit crunch you have had it. And so has anybody over exposed today. Of course, I could be wrong...
Tina Douglass, Carmarthen, CArmarthenshire
The latest figures from the Halifax, though encouraging still show a 5.2% annual increase, still above the rate of inflation and that of the average wage rise.
With the average house price at just under £200k and the average salary at just above £22k, it still puts the price of the average house beyond the reach of most people. Though there is an increasing focus on affordable housing through shared ownership schemes, is it really enough?
www.co-buyers.net
Mark Waldron, London,
Has anyone else tried to work out how it's 5.2% or how it fell from 6.3% in December given that it went up 1.3% in the month. These statistics sound dodgy.
"However, over last year as a whole, Halifaxâs data shows that British house prices climbed by 5.2 per cent, the slowest rate of growth for 12 months, with the average cost of a home rising by £11,759 to £197,039"
Not when I went to school
Bill , Gerrards Cross, UK
Why dont "NEWS" organisations get on with just reporting the news rather than self serving over zealous comment and opinion. Houses price drops reported as crashes and prices rises reported as "a fall in house price inflation". Stop the obsession with prices and let people make their own minds up if they want or need to move. We live on a tiny island with not enough homes to go around therefore prices will never fall by the much reported 40%. If they do the property investors will jump straight back in and buy up even more homes for their pension funds and push prices back up. Every year for the last 5 years we have been told we are in for a price crash that never comes. I would love to know how these "experts" can still call themselves that after so many years of be totally and utterly incorrect.
Chris O'Shea, Bristol,
I'd like to know if this is volume-weighted.
Sales are traditionally thin in December, so an unweighted 'month-month' comparison to the previous months is a poor indicator.
With petrol prices increasing, 15-20% increases in other energy costs just announced, mass redundancies in the Financial sector looming, a tightening economy, and already high income multiples being needed for purchase I fail to see where the cash is going to come from to prop up any kind of price growth in 2008.
Unless of course we are heading for the situation in Japan, with the invention of 100 year mortgages that can be 'inherited' by your children...
Rob, London, UK
Too Bob Pounder
I totally agree , ten years of good times , 3 months of correction and every " Body " is screaming cut rates to please shareholders .. I am 100% not in favour of dropping rates . It will give a wrong signal and it certainly looks like many readers are singing from the same song sheet ! The country is to soft ! Cruel to be kind ...
We need a 12 month period of tightening ... Cheap money and the expectance of rsing house prices every week gets on my nerves ...
Charles, Somerset,
Why do house prices always have to rise?
Why do people want something for nothing? Why cant for once people spend the money they actually have rather than borrowing what others have saved and expect an easy ride?
I dont think there is anything wrong with tightening the belts once in a while.
Why should borrowers be favoured over savers?
P Des, manchester,
Well, well, well, what a different view to that we have been reading about over the last couple of months. Average of 5.2% annual house price inflation, and a forecast of a healthy growing economy.
Looks like we have our Christmas cake and are eating the icing as well.
Does anybody really see the need to lower interest rates????
bob pounder, stevenage,
Why does every economist say teh economy is in good shape. We have a huge personal debt mountain, a widening government deficit, a credit crunch, signs of increasing unemployment, and increasing inflation (despite waht the CPI says).
Stop the spin on house prices and recognise what is happening. We have had 10 years of boom built on the back of consumer spending. Consumers are maxed out on debt and we are facing tougher times.
david barker, maidstone,