James Rossiter
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The head of Barratt Developments, Britain’s second most valuable housebuilder, gave warning yesterday that the decline in the housing market would continue into the new year as he revealed that sales of his own company’s new homes have fallen by 14 per cent since the summer.
Mark Clare, the chief executive, said that his company’s sales volumes would most likely end 17 per cent down for its second half, ending on New Year’s Eve, compared with last year.
He expects prices to stagnate, with zero growth during 2008.
Sales reservations for new homes would continue to fall if, as expected, the debt markets continue to make it hard for lenders to offer the sort of cheap mortgage deals that house-hunters had become used to over the past few years, Mr Clare said.
Barratt’s sudden deterioration in trading over the 19 weeks to November 10 is the worst sales performance admitted to so far by any of the country’s big housebuilders since the run on Northern Rock.
Mr Clare said that Barratt’s sales slowdown was part of a wider problem. He said: “An interest-rate cut would help in terms of customer sentiment. We have lost Northern Rock, one of the most competitive lenders for pricing. There is a repricing of risk and that is hitting the affordable end of the market for mortgages.”
Shares in Barratt fell yesterday to a four-year low, down 5 per cent to 480p, part of a wider sell-off in both housebuilding and commercial property stocks as fears intensified that both property markets were heading for a repeat of the 1990s recession.
The share prices of Barratt, Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey – who together accounted for about four out of every ten houses sold last year - have fallen by between 50 per cent and 60 per cent since the start of this year.
Barratt has managed to keep its prices stable or marginally ahead this year, but that has come at the cost of volume.
Mr Clare has refused to accept the heavy discounting being demanded over the past few weeks by buy-to-let investors, ready to buy ten units or more off-plan.
It is understood that these sorts of buyers are asking for discounts of 15 per cent or more off the asking price.
Barratt has increased its use of sales incentives, such as paying a deposit for first-time buyers, but still managed to increase its average sales prices by 2 per cent since July.
Barratt’s deterioration in trading was reflected by separate figures released yesterday from Rightmove, the country’s largest housing website, pointing to a housing market that has ground to a halt.
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The more poverty the better as far as these posters say! Inflation is not cured by high interest rates, nor is it a greater danger than slump and unemployment.
Michael Moore, Stockport,
I don't get it.
He's predicting that house price growth will be zero percent. That doesn't sound very disastrous after years of boom. But he sees this as a reason for a cut in interest rates?
The curious thing is, when house prices were rising 15%+ per year, I don't recall the boss of Barrat yelling at the Bank of England to raise interest rates?
These people are quite happy to sit through the boom taking their massive bonuses, and as soon as there is a bit of choppy water, they are whining at the MPC to cut rates.
Housing bust here we come.
MG, London, England
Strangely I don't recall Barratt demanding IR increases to dampen 10-15% pa house price inflation during the last few years.
But as everyone knows, if house prices are going UP it's because they're great investments and there is a supply shortage, and if they're going DOWN then it is nothing to do with supply and demand, it is suddenly due to interest rates being too high.
These guys must think we're all stupid.
Paul, Dubai, UAE
In the last 10 years i haven't noticed anyone saying that interest rates should go up whilst house prices were leaping ever higher - so now that they are beginning to fall, why should the interest rate change at all?
In fact, i understood that house prices were not part of the same system at all, and should not be taken into account.
You cannot have it both ways.
peter ashworth, LONDON, UK
How come, i wonder, that when people stuggle to repay their mortgage their house get repossessed and the government just let this happend but when a multibillionaire complain that is not getting enough millions after ten years of hoarding the all government and the BoE get all worried?
Is this what institutions are meant to do???
Luigi, London,
How about affordable homes for first time buyers rather than a inflated housing bubble for buy to let homes.
Barret you have your priorities wrong and don't play the moral card when you have helped push affordable homes out of reach of first time buyers for your investor friends.
Gavin Miller, London,
Dropping interest rates now will do one thing ... bring on massive inflation.
If you have a pension or savings, kiss them goodbye at the expense of the housing market vested interests (banks, builders, estate agents).
A rate cut now would be robbery of the prudent to save the profligate and should not be tolerated.
Daz, Cheltenham,
It is quite understandable that Barratt defends a reduction of the interest rate. Why not? In his place, I would try to do the same. It is all a matter of what Americans call "hutzpah".
Barratt is promoting the correct (for him) monetary policy: privatise the profits and socialise the losses. Marx would have a fit, to be sure.
As Allan Greenspan said in his recently published book that in a capitalist economy one either absorb the losses or goes bankrupt. That's the name of the game. If you can't afford it, just don't sit at the table!
Jaysonrex, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Barratt will most likely threaten to stop building and sit on their land banks. I would respond to this by revoking their zoning and planning approvals and slapping compulsory purchase orders on their (now worthless) land, in order build social housing....if only
LM, Lincs,
The problem with the builders is they have been building poor quality housing stock for several years-the customer has paid well over the odds for inferior product and the situation is getting worse.
Wake up builders the honeymoon period is over-stop whining and get your house in order!!
Sven Napper, Greenhithe, Kent
We need to distinguish what is good for us personally (I rent and own) and what is good for the economy I agree that interest rates should not be used to prop up 'overpriced' housing but: (1) while housing is well up on affordability and long-term average rates that doesn't make it overpriced, the model has changed due to the growth of property investment and the decline in structured pensions as a % of people's earnings (2) Interest rates need to be used as a tool to manage spending, a significant property revaluation would damage consumer confidence and potentially throw us into recession - none of us, renters or home-owners wants to lose our jobs (3) if we ever see stagflation it will be due to rising energy and commodity prices (same as it was last time) but we are significantly less exposed to oil than we were in the 60s and 70s and if we are smart will do the best we can to be even less exposed going forward.
G, London,
The BOE job is to control inflation,not house prices.What goes up comes down.Simple isn't it.If the BOE had to control house prices within the 2% limit,imagine the interest rates we would have had to have.10% I reckon.Mind you,the economy would be in great shape now.Less debt ,more real take home pay,no NR fiasco and a savings culture.What went wrong?
stephen Hulton, Eure, France
The BoE should hold firm and not reduce rates, the last thing the UK needs is reinflation of the property bubble. What the government should do is impose a punitive windfall tax on Barratt and other developers. Having built on landbanks acquired before property inflation took off, using labour which has increased in value only modestly, the shareholders of these companies have pocketed profits at the expense of the wider social good. Let the taxpayer have some of this back.
Clint, Staffs, UK
You can bet your bottom dollar they will lower interest rates though. The Government and all political parties are so scared of the home owning majority they will do anything to make sure they keep on receiving the untaxed unearned capital gains in housing they have grown to expect and will do nothing to bring the bubble down gently.If it bursts with US style consequences they can say it was n't their fault; it was just the workings of the market.Meanwhile in Northern Ireland they are looking at taxing derielict land: this will do more to stabilise house prices as it is the artificial shortage of land that is the problem All the best DBC Reed
dbcreed, Northampton, UK
They've had it too good for too long. The country needs to "slow down" with regard to it's excessive spending.
Janine, Rugby, Warwickshire
Mark Clare is able to offer commonhold over versus leasehold on newly-built flats that represent a large percentage of Barratt's construction. This would remove ongoing ground rents that range from £250 P/A, plus it will allow purchasers to own their home, which they cannot do on leasehold. The Government made this possible in the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Act 2002 whereby property developers were able to offer commohold/freehold over the antiquated feudal tenure- in other words leasehold - that dates back over a thousand years.
Denis Knowles, Maidstone Kent, UK
If Barratt has managed to increase its average sales price by 2% since July, then surely this shows that there are further inflation risks in the economy, and further interest rate increases are required.
A slightly less flippant point - why are we listening to a company that is whining that volume is down when they have increased their prices?
Rob, London,
Houses are way over priced anyway and the whinging bosses of the estate agents and house builders should be content to sell houses for the same prices as they were 3 or 4 years ago. They still made huge profits then as well and the cost of materials hasnt exactly rocketed up either.
Stop moaning and build more affordable houses by making less profit.
Micky T
Mick Thomson, Gold Coast, Australia
Barret and the rest have had a good time over the past few years
now its time to realise that their products are overpriced.
but no
They want the easy way out - bring back crazy borrowing
Just so they can stay in profit.
Madness
Let the market find its own level
Their will be casualties
Even if prices crash to a sensible level, without the banks lending money to prospective buyers, then how low can prices go.
Bye bye Barret profits next year
neil, coutances, france
It is not in the remit of the bank of england to reduce interest rates to "save" the over bloated pig of a house price bubble we have had for 5 years. Also,it is not the banks job to bail out private companies. If Mark Clare expects only zero growth next year,he really is in a state of denial.Bring on the crash.
les, plymouth, uk
Hey, that's a great idea. Let's lower interest rates, sell savers down the river and risk higher inflation so that Barratts can continue to make the megabucks they've got used to over the past few years.
BS, Willerby, East Yorkshire, UK
My heart bleeds for him - not! Yes he is right, Northern Rock was one of the most competitive for pricing - ugh... because its buisness model was totally flawed and it lent money irresponsibly in a bid to become a big player and generate huge bonuses for management. It has failed ... ever thought why? I am sick and tired of hearing people say that we need to take the pressure off the housing market by cutting interest rates. Wrong. We need to keep the pressure on the housing market to get house prices back down to an affordable level for all.
It is time the whole housing industry faced reality. You had it good for far to long. All involved have built a bubble and it is now bursting. And it is not up to the rest of us to bail you out by a cut in interest rates just to "help in terms of customer sentiment". You had the gain now time to take the pain.
IT, Surrey,
Mr Claire, if you keep trying to increase your prices how can the BoE lower interest rates? Inflation is the real threat to the economy or is it a slow down or both, ermmm stagflation....
chris, stockport,
I notice that no one asked for interest rate rises over the past few years when house prices spiralled totally out of control, fuelled by irresponsible and reckless lending and low interest rates.
House prices are now far too high so demand has fallen. The correct course for sellers is to reduce sale prices so that demand picks up.
BoE interest rates are to control inflation, not to satisfy sectional interests nor to inflate house prices over the already unreasonable current levels.
C. Slinn, Biras, France