James Rossiter and Miles Costello
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Bovis, the top 10 UK housebuilder, has given warning that faltering consumer confidence has hit sales during the key autumn period.
The warning Bovis, a company that sold over 3,000 homes last year, provides hard evidence of a sharp slow-down in the wider residential housing market forecast by a slew of recent industry reports.
Blaming the credit crunch for a fall in the number of buyers since September, Malcolm Harris, chief executive of Bovis, said that profits for the full year would now be "slightly below" previous forecasts.
Bovis has refused to cut the underlying prices of its properties in an effort to maintain margins but fewer sales this year will translate into a fall in profits.
City analysts sliced £10 million off their 2007 pre-tax profit forecasts for Bovis from £139 million to £129 million. Profits last year were 13.7 per cent higher at £132 million.
Mr Harris said: "Recent events in the financial markets have adversely affected consumer confidence, resulting in sales being lower than anticipates during the key autumn selling period."
In July Mr Harris said that the ability for Bovis to meet its full year forecasts depended on the usual autumn sales season kicking in.
Since August however the credit cruch has triggered a run on savings at Northern Rock, Britain's fifth largest mortgage provider, caused mortgage providers to tighten their lending criteria and judging by today's news from Bovis provoked a wider crisis in consumer confidence
Mr Harris added : "Looking ahead, the mid and longer-term supply and demand dynamic remains very attractive in the housing market, but, in the short term, sales will reflect this recent decline in consumer confidence, in particular as it relates to major consumer purchases."
Analysts had expected sales volumes to grow by about 3 per cent to 3185 units. They now reckon on a fall to 3110.
The gloomy outlook comes less than a month after Mr Harris told The Times that the housing market was "steady".
The builder maintained that it was still in a "strong position" to add value for shareholders.
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I wouldn't buy a new home at the prices being asked by the major housebuilders. They are overpriced and not a patch on the quality of properties built more than 50 years ago. The finish leaves a lot to be desired, and the room sizes are ridiculous.
The Terruer, Nottingham,
Thank you Miles Costello for the report. If the industry thinks a fall of 3% is a 'dramatic fall', I think they are in for an experience which could be described as truly mind blowing when reality kicks in. The I.M.F. reports that they cannot account for 40% of the rise in house prices in the UK. The IMF don't have shareholders to consider, so that of course gives them more credibility. I would say that the rise in prices is due to the excessive demand from poor credit buyers (who will be struggling to pay the increased mortgage rates) and B.T.L. investors. Both are in trouble now. The recent reduction announced in capital gains tax after April will prove the catalyst and the last opportunity for BTL investors with any gains to bail out. This will put further pressure on more recent BTL investors. Meanwhile all those youngsters with their deposits will sit on their money and observe with incredulity the spectacle of the housing market going into reverse.
Diddly Do, Liverpool,
Seems like there are lots of 10% price reductions in North London, which is not that much considering the pyramid scheme spike in prices of possibly 30% over the past year. The main driver for this seems to have been indiscriminate lending, not Borats sharing rooms or soon to disappear investment banking bonuses. We even managed to see a house on Saturday morning at 1 1/2 hours notice, so hopefully prices will finally start to fall back to levels that normal people like us can afford. Then hopefully greedy BTLers will start to feel some pain too.
Davie P, London,
Does anyone know what Persimmon is doing on prices and tempters...rb
richard bestic, london, uk
The Party is over !
Some of you are missing the point , 3% is the number of lost sales this year , in real terms that could be 20 Million Loss for Bovis , now thats a Big Loss , you can gain from this as they will be desparate for sales leading up to Christmas.
10%+ is the minimum you will want off and your arrangements fees paid for .. Everthing you can think of ...
Bovis will be keen to do deals as long as you can move quickily.
Also Part exchange stock - that must be building up as even that market will slow and builders will want to off load dead stock.
Investment buyers are now off the list so FTB's - Go out there and do the best deal you can - dont take any waffle from them if they say there busy and do not drop !
Remeber End of Year sales are very important to Builders , If August was Bad then they have no completions for December
Deal or No Deal ?! Then No House sold and No money for Share Holders ..... Ahhhhhhhh
charles James , West Country ,
Fabio: A 3% fall is dramatic in business terms.
50%!!!! keep dreaming , you're talking complete nonsense. You say you want to see it but I seriously doubt that you do beause it would mean severe recession for the country, you'd lose your job as a result, and wouldn't be able to buy anyway.
Jackboy, London,
pay attention doom and gloomers. read the article again.
They are saying that sales will be less than prediction as but more than last year
Frank Bullitt, Forfar, UK
Bovis forecast is another nail in the coffin of the housing cheerleaders like estate agents and mortgage lenders. The writing is on the wall and only a fool or a liar will fail to see it writ large: THE PARTY IS OVER.
anthony, london, england
Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity but cash is reality! I am sure Bovis, like many other property companies, has taken houses in part-exchange in order to sell many of their homes. These could be held as assets with a higher than market book value in order to bolster profits. Do not be surprised if Bovis and other companies start announcing a series of so-called 'one-off' charges as they bring their balance sheets into market reality. Then I predict a share price falling in tandem with the property market over the next year - say 40% drop to about £4 per share.
Steve Marchant, Torquay, England
If the fall was of 3% then it wasn't "dramatic". I want to see prices falling about 50%. At least.
Fabio C, London, UK
Perhaps people have wised up to the fact that Bovis, Barratt, Wimpey et al build crap homes. I've just sold my victorian terrace in less than a week for the asking price!
ben, Leicester,
Strange how all those with a vested interest in keeping house prices soaring announce some dire news about house prices falling just before the MPC meets.
Alex Ritchie, Salisbury, UK
This is evidence that the "froth is off" in the resi market. The house builders will be worse hit because they rely on acheiving frothy prices which works in a strong market. There are many more discounts and contributions available from the big house builders than there were 6 months ago. I would you say you could buy a new house 5% cheaper if you know how to negotiate.
gavin, london, UK