Susan Thompson
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Approvals of new home loans dropped last month to the lowest levels for two years, in the latest sign that the housing market is cooling rapidly.
Bank of England figures showed that the number of new mortgage approvals in September fell to 102,000, down from 108,000 in August, and almost a fifth lower than at the same time last year.
The weak data added to growing evidence, now coming thick and fast, that the property market faces a sharp slowdown as the five interest rate increases by the Bank, and now tighter lending conditions triggered by the global credit squeeze, take their toll.
Earlier this month, the British Bankers' Association reported that mortgage approvals by leading banks fell by 14 per cent in September, to a level that was down 27 per cent from a year before.
Today, Hometrack, the property website, reported that, according to its research, house prices in England and Wales fell 0.1 per cent in October, on the heels of two months of zero growth.
There were some signs of lingering strength in the market today, however, as the Bank’s figures also showed that net mortgage lending rose by a robust £9.8 billion last month, the biggest increase since February. The City had expected a rise of only £8.3 billion.
However, it is mortgage approvals that are regarded as a better gauge of future market trends, as the lending figures reflect past approvals made some months ago.
The strength of mortgage lending as well as a resurgence in borrowing on credit cards and through unsecured personal loans also shown in today’s numbers will nevertheless deal a blow to homeowners’ hopes that the Bank will ride to the market’s rescue with an early cut in interest rates, perhaps before Christmas.
Overall, unsecured borrowing by consumers rose last month by a net £1.35 billion, markedly stronger than the £1.1 billion August figure, and the biggest increase since January last year.
Credit card borrowing rose by £310 million, against the modest £130 million increase in August, also the biggest gain since early last year.
Economists said that the strength of personal borrowing suggested that fears of a sharp economic slowdown next year were not deterring Britons from resorting to loans to bridge the gap between weak earnings growth and their spending.
As the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee prepares to set base rates next week, analysts said the strength of unsecured lending is likely to deter it from cutting rates before next year.
“Significantly higher mortgage lending and consumer borrowing in September is not conducive to an interest rate cut,” Howard Archer, of Global Insight, said. “We continue to believe that the Bank of England will hold off trimming interest rates until the first quarter of 2008.”
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Its interesting that in most cases a correction is seen as positive occurrence. But not so for housing!
We still have historically low interest rates and low unemployment nevertheless repossessions are ramping up drastically. If the UK economy were to take a downturn the result can only be a catastrophe.
The problem is that people have been buying homes for vastly overinflated prices now for roughly 4 years now...a true correction would not be a pleasant sight.
klara jirackova, Newcastle,
When house prices were rising steeply the official mantra was that interest rates could not and should not be set to control asset prices ie house prices.
What has changed to suggest that this argument should not be used on the way down.
The big question is - now that we have allowed uncontrolled inflation to run rampant in the housing market will we create an even bigger inflation problem by lowering interest rates, rather than let the asset price inflation unwind.
If we do all the ex chancellors work to create a successful economy will disappear.
James, NI, UK
Agreed,
The US with their behaviour to the greenback (lowering interest rates suicidally), will have a run on their currency
Austin Tassletine, Bristol, UK
Totally agree that rates should head North, not South. I am sure Gordon Brown is now regretting giving the Bank of England independence to set interest rates. In the 'good old bad old days' a government could cover its mistakes by lowering interest rates, allowing managed depreciation of the pound with inflation take hold - that would generally sort out the house price bubble. However, in a global market with free movemnent of money we would see a huge exous of capital and a run on the pound. So now Gordon finds himself in a situation he cannot control. I reckon he'll be forced to resign before the next election as further economic turmoil destabilises our financial systems.
Steve Marchant, Torquay, England
Do we really want house prices to continually rise?
Judging by the tone of many articles this is exactly what journalists want.
We need a resurgeance of the housing market like a hole in the head.
What precisely is wrong with a drop in prices? The alternative is an increase--nést ce pas?
N, Royan, France
Perhaps the increased unsecured personal borrowing reflects the 'topping up' of personal finance required to pay the mortgage - including many new buy-to-let investors trying to bridge the gap between rental income and outgoings.
If the markets are not flooded by repossessions within 6 months my name's not Baggiins.
BagginsAtSea, Torbay, UK
Why should interest rates be cut?
Inflation is not as benign as many would have us believe and global shifts such as the demand for raw materials, agricultural products will keep prices high and rising. The biggest change for the UK will be, in MHO, the rapid unwinding of the deflationary effect that China has been exerting. Without that the RPI and even our governments preferred and selfdellusional CPI will be more suggestive of a rate increase.
Pundits are only talking about a rate cut because of the housing market and conditions in the US. The USA would actually like a slow unwinding of the dollar strength to reduce the strain of their current account deficit. Sterling and the Euro will not move in concert with this. The greenback and the loonie have reached parity for the first time in years and it's not because of Canada's strength. Any remember when a dollar equalled half a crown?
David, S, Kent