Miles Costello
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Shareholders in housebuilders are notoriously sensitive, and nervous comments by one firm tend to be read as applying across the sector. So it was with Bovis, whose cautious pronouncements on trading today sparked an 8 per cent sell-off in its shares.
Redrow and Persimmon, both of which had been considerably more optimistic in their own trading updates over recent weeks, followed Bovis's fall, losing 4 per cent and 4.6 per cent of their value, respectively.
Bovis said reservation levels on new-build homes - and their average asking prices - had barely moved on the same period last year. More worryingly, it said site visits and reservations by prospective homebuyers had slowed.
What upset the stockmarket is that first-half results are likley to be broadly flat on last year, placing a question mark over Bovis's ability to meet forecasts of a 10 per cent rise in profits this year and next. The company said the full-year outcome depends on the autumn selling season, but analysts were quick to cut estimates - by up to 10 per cent - on the assumption that the hoped-for bounce back will not materialise.
Bovis has traditionally been underpinned by hopes that, as one of the sector's smaller operators, it will be mopped up by a larger peer. Today's update may hasten further consolidation. But any transaction will be taken a sign of the sector's weakness - already evident in the proposed George Wimpey and Taylor Woodrow deal - than any reason to turn bullish.
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