Miles Costello
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Amid widespread predictions of a housing market downturn, there appears little shelter for investors seeking property exposure through equities.
According to Halifax, house prices have risen at less than 0.5 per cent for each of the past two months and the quarterly growth rate has slowed to 2 per cent, from 3 per cent and 4.2 per cent previously.
Although Britain’s biggest mortgage lender is still recording annualised price increases in excess of 10 per cent for property, it is preparing for a slowdown, if not a mild correction.
That explains why shares in HBOS, Halifax’s owner, as well as Northern Rock, Bradford & Bingley or Alliance & Leicester, have fallen so far this year.
Savills, the commercial property specialist that also sells houses to the rich, has suffered similar pressure. But Savills offers an intriguing twist. The nature of its residential market, and the type of clients it attracts suggests that, in part, it is more immune to a downturn.
For a start, it concentrates on high-end properties, which it have shown healthy increases in value.
London and the South East, where City bonuses and wealthy foreign investors have buoyed prices, have performed strongly and generated good fee income. Savills says that trend will continue.
The average Savills buyer, as well as being unlikely to need a mortgage, is well-positioned to weather further interest rate rises. Savills’ markets in Europe and Asia are also less likely to be influenced by higher borrowing costs.
But despite its reputation as an upmarket estate agency, Savills only makes 20 per cent of its revenues from residential property. The vast bulk comes from commercial property - sales, management and consultancy.
That diversification, together with its strong balance sheet, should provide some protection when the cycle inevitably turns.
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