Miles Costello
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National house prices rose by only 0.4 per cent in June, according to Halifax, Britain's largest mortgage lender, as the latest evidence emerged of a market slowdown — and a widening rift between nationwide property prices.
In Greater London prices rose by 4.9 per cent last month, the lender said, with Northern Ireland roaring ahead with an increase of 8.5 per cent for June.
Northern Ireland is now the most expensive part of the UK in which to buy property outside London and the South East, the Halifax said.
According to today's figures, however, surging prices in these economically more prosperous areas are masking real declines in less-well-off areas.
Last month prices fell 0.4 per cent in the South West of England, slid 1.1 per cent in the West Midlands and dropped 2.8 per cent in Wales, Halifax figures showed.
Martin Ellis, Halifax chief economist, said: "These figures indicate that house price inflation is slowing.
"The increases in mortgage rates and the persistence of negative real earnings growth in the early months of 2007 are expected to cause annual house price inflation to slow further over the coming months."
Halifax maintained today that the fundamentals of the property market were still strong and in the past 12 months have risen 10.7 per cent to put the average house cost at £197,461.
Today's figures come after Halifax said last month that house prices rose 0.3 per cent in May.
This means that house prices have risen by less than 0.5 per cent for two successive months and suggests that a series of interest rate rises since August have begun to bite on consumer sentiment.
The Bank of England meets today ahead of a decision on interest rates tomorrow that is predicted by many economists to result in a further quarter-point increase, to 5.75 per cent, in the cost of borrowing.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, noted that house price rises for June were "markedly" below increases seen in the first four months of 2007 of up to 1.9 per cent.
"Overall, the evidence suggests to us that the housing market has peaked and is gradually coming off the boil," he said.
Hometrack, the property data company, reported this week that property prices grew only 0.3 per cent in June.
It asserted that prices were rising in only 28 per cent of the country.
It suggested that the annual rate of house price growth would drop to 4 per cent over the coming months and that London prices would falter.
Nationwide, the building society, is predicting that prices will grow by between 5 per cent and 8 per cent this year.
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Rental demand is strong as first time buyers struggle to get on the property ladder and that is so significant as this alone will underpin the market to a certain degree ,also with a shortage of property in the almost entire south east of England supply and demand go hand and hand prices will be volitile as with any asset class but no crash and as for amateur landlords you will find most of them are family business that in the most part are in it for the long term.
J J, LONDON, UK
The house prices are far too high compared with earnings and a correction is well overdue. In my opinion the prices will drop by atleast 18% over the 6 months depending on the next move by BOE.
Mukesh , Edgware, Middx
I agree with the view that house prices have peaked and will slowly,but consistantly,decline over the coming months. This brings me to my deepest concern which is the overall progress of the UKs economy over the coming quartes. if house prices begin to decline and the MPC keep raising intrest rates the economy will most definetly slow down. Thus it is important for the MPC to, fore once, consider the house price trend when implenting a new intrest rate tomorow otherwise there could be damaging consequences.
STEFANOS, athens, GREECE
Can you hear the correction coming?
It starts as a little rumble and and then it becomes a roar as the amateur buy to let landlord try to save their capital.
Looks like we'll all have to work for a living again instead of banking on booming house prices to pay for our retirement.
Paddles, London,
those are quarterly figures not monthly figures (-1.1% west midlands) read the press release again!!
steve, brighton,
There are a number of factors that will have a big impact on not only house prices but the economy generally. One of them is a rush of blood by the Americans whereby they drop a few bombs on Iran. Another is bird flu. Mustn't forget the booming Chinese economy. That will drop like the proverbial brick outhouse. And also the fact that the UK Government has made no secret of the fact that it wants prices to fall. And the Government will slowly ratchet things until it achieves what it wants. So I reckon the best thing is to sell now, ,while you might be able to, and either rent for a couple of years, move to a low economy country, or trade down. I wouldn't want to be over exposed at this time.
Jim, Auckland, NZ
about time realism was highlighted by the experts.worsley where i reside has dozens of good properties all over with only those under £200,000 selling and the odd top quality expensive one selling. many have been reduced by 10%-15%
and no activity still.
as a pleasant central place to live this must mirror what is happening elsewhere.
the last time this happened in 1991 people with absurd ideas on their values saw a 20%drop. i think anyone who has to sell will find this very soon
rod smith, manchester, england
It's amazing how house prices are rocketing all the time except the day before the BOE meets to decide on interest rates. Then they plummet.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
The original information from Halifax talks in terms of Q2 2007 figures for the most part, whereas your article has mistakenly stated those figures as being for the month of June alone.
Edwin, Tokyo, Japan
As house price inflation is NOT included in the MPC's preferred measure of inflation, the CPI this will have much less impact on the decision to raise or hold interest rates than may be popularly imagined.
Just goes to show what a bad indicator it is!
M Brown, reading,
You say house prices in london increased by just under 5% in the month of June alone ? Does that mean they could have increased by 50% over the year !
If that is the case it is incredible and no wonder speculators are investing, as the returns are astonishing. But are those increases the sign of a healthy housing market or a speculative bubble ?
andy, manchester,
Hey! Prices in Wales dropped 2.8% last month!
That is not possible, where is the high unemployment, economic slow down and all the other triggers that should promote the house price crash??!
Ummmm.... maybe people are just getting sensible about house prices, no trigger needed... David, Gary, take notice!
Michele, Richmond,
The problem with economies is that they have hysteresis. The effect lags the cause. It is underestimated just how long it takes to work. The effect of a rate rise may not have much effect untill september or october on the economy. It may also take longer to afect the housing market as most people do their buying and selling in the spring.
What is happening with the build up in interest rates is that we are heading for a stock market retail disaster in December.
Controlling the economy with interest rates is all very well onder known conditions. But are these normal conditions?
Agnostic, Kelso, Borders
about time realism was highlighted by the experts.worsley where i reside has dozens of good properties all over with only those under £200,000 selling and the odd top quality expensive one selling. many have been reduced by 10%-15%
and no activity still.
as a pleasant central place to live this must mirror what is happening elsewhere.
the last time this happened in 1991 people with absurd ideas on their values saw a 20%drop. i think anyone who has to sell will find this very soon
rod smith, manchester, england
It surprises me how bouyant the housing market has been considering most newspapers' attempts at inspriring a 90's style property crash over the past few years - house value and negative equity panic makes great headlines. In fairness to the media, many (proper) economists have also been predicting a crash. But even if it does happen and if prices come off say 20%, they'll still be at levels seen in mid-2004 and still be way to expensive for the vast amount of potential first-time buyers. I guess the UK housing market is just symptomatic of a society where the rich are getting richer and making it more difficult for everyone else.
Rod Munch, Northampton, UK
So according to the Halifax 'economist' house prices will double in the UK in 7 years and they will double in London in 18 months! And this is a 'cooling' market?
What methodology do the Halifax use..oh yes...think of a number double it, divide by todays date.....and make sure you publish just before the BoE meeting!
Doh! I think Homer Simpson could do better than this!
A. Skeptic, Westcountry, UK