Patrick Hosking
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Anthony Bolton’s investment juices are flowing once more. Meeting dozens of exciting Chinese companies has revived his appetite for fund management and lured him out of semi-retirement to begin stockpicking again.
Speaking to The Times from Hong Kong, Mr Bolton, Britain’s most respected money manager, said: “It’s coming out here and being close to the action that has rekindled my interest.”
Earlier in the day, he had stunned and delighted the City with the news that he was returning to money management, though the bullish mood faded a little as it was made clear he would be shunning UK shares and moving to Hong Kong to invest in Chinese companies.
Mr Bolton rose to prominence as “the quiet assassin”, a description he detested, when he orchestrated a campaign to remove Michael Green as chairman of Carlton Communications. But his army of investment fans knew him better as the head of Special Situations, a £4 billion fund that delivered an average annual return of 19.5 per cent over his 28-year rule: £1,000 invested in the fund in 1979 grew to £148,200 under his stewardship.
Mr Bolton, 59, retired from active money management at Fidelity International in 2007 after the break-up of Special Situations, continuing full time at the group but in a mentoring role. Now he will pick stocks again for a yet to be created fund, which will be available to UK investors next spring.
Darius McDermott, managing director of Chelsea Financial Services, the discount broker, said: “It is fantastic news for personal investors. Nothing quite beats a comeback. Boxing had Ali, cycling had Armstrong, fund management now has Anthony Bolton.”
Mr Bolton spoke of his long-held interest in China, investing up to 5 per cent of Special Situations in Chinese shares, and said the prospects now were enticing. “We’re in the S curve of development” — the point in the rise of living standards when growth takes off before slowing again as economic maturity is reached. “I think China is like Korea and Taiwan were 20 years ago — in the sweet spot for growth.”
The sheer size of China, with its 1.3 billion population, is another factor, Mr Bolton said. “We’ve never seen a country this size get in the sweet spot.” He added that the likely appreciation of the yuan in the medium term would also boost returns for foreign investors.
Mr Bolton has spent the past three months in Hong Kong: “After a month here, I said to my wife [Sarah] that the one thing that would get me interested [in running funds again] would be running money in China. I thought there would be push-back from her, but she likes Hong Kong and said why don’t you do it while you have the opportunity?”
He was less bullish on prospects for Western economies, saying the huge cost of the bank bailout would hold back growth for years. “In solving the financial crisis, Western governments have mortgaged the future.”
The size and shape of his new fund is still undecided, Mr Bolton said, but he cautioned: “One of the things I’m going to urge is that I don’t want too much money.”
One of the paradoxical pitfalls of success in fund management is that it attracts huge amounts of new money, which can be hard to invest without triggering adverse price movements. Mr Bolton hinted that he might charge high fees to deter his fan base.
Mr McDemott said that Mr Bolton’s reputation was so high that he could easily attract billions of pounds, especially if the new fund was launched in time for the Isa season in March.
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