WHILE Michael Spencer was holding talks this summer with Clara Furse about a merger of the London Stock Exchange and Icap, there must have been a few moments when the City’s reputed richest man regretted the sale of his 1.5 per cent stake in the LSE in January.

At the time it looked like a shrewd sale. Mr Spencer sold the £20 million stake for a handsome profit, at 620p a share. Since then, however, the shares have almost doubled and now stand at £12.43.

What Mr Spencer had not counted on was the appearance of Nasdaq, the US exchange, as a potential bidder. Nasdaq’s interest — to say nothing of the 25 per cent stake it holds — has concentrated minds at the LSE as well. There is strong industrial logic, on both sides, in linking Icap and the LSE.

The advantages for the LSE, however, may be more forceful. For one thing it would enable it to retain an independent identity. A link with Icap would also give it a valuable derivatives business. Arguably, Ms Furse’s biggest mistake was to let Liffe, the financial futures market, slip through her fingers in 2002. It is an event of which she must be sick of being reminded. However, if the LSE had managed to agree terms with Liffe, it might not find itself at the centre of such uncomfortable bid speculation.

The pursuit of the LSE can be traced back to the point it failed to buy Liffe. Liffe’s acquisition by Euronext gave the continental bourse operator a significant leg up. In contrast, the LSE’s inability to complete its own acquisition has left it vulnerable, as illustrated by the four putative bids for it in 20 months.

For Icap, the move would make a lot of sense as more and more of its inter-dealer broking business shifts under the ambit of regulatory regimes familiar to the LSE. An Icap-LSE link would also have merit among those who believe that it is important that the ownership of these vital City trading activities remains in the UK.

Ms Furse has done an excellent job driving up the LSE’s share price, but with 25 per cent of the stock owned by Nasdaq there is very little chance that a deal will be done without its consent. Since Mr Spencer seems to think that the LSE is also expensive, the odds of a deal lengthen further. So an all- British tie-up with Icap, no matter how logical, looks unlikely. Unless, of course, some way could be found to include Nasdaq in a three-way deal.

Times Recommends

• Lies and cover-up at MG Rover exposed by report
• High oil prices push manufacturing costs up
• Primark founder steps down as chief executive