Patrick Hosking, Banking and Finance Editor
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First the good news. Converting prices into pounds is now a doddle. A couple of years ago, when as little as 70p bought you a euro, weighing up prices in eurozone countries such as France, Spain, the Irish Republic and Italy required a modicum of mental arithmetic. Now, you just need to replace the € symbol with a £ sign. Et voilà!
Or perhaps the apposite exclamation is sacre bleu! For at a one-to-one exchange rate, prices for Brits visiting the eurozone or buying goods from its 15 countries are fiendishly high.
It was very different in January 1999 when the single European currency was launched. Then a euro cost only 71p. It got better: the new currency started to slide and by March 2000 a euro cost just 60p.
Since then the pound has gradually slid back and the fall has turned into a near-collapse in recent weeks. This is not about euro strength, but pound weakness. The pound is plunging against the currencies of almost all our big trading partners. It is hardly surprising. Among other things, a country's exchange rate reflects its economic prospects, and Britain's right now are lousy. Past dependence on growth fuelled by borrowing; a housing and commercial property bubble; overreliance on financial services (five of our ten biggest companies were banks before the crunch); an already heavily indebted Government - all suggest that Britain will be hit harder and will have fewer resources to claw its way out of the downturn.
Monetary policy is adding to the pound's weakness. With every cut in interest rates, Britain becomes a less attractive destination for the trillions of dollars in footloose money that sloshes around the world's financial centres in search of the highest returns. Base rate at 2 per cent is at its lowest since the Second World War. More cuts are expected, possibly next week.
The currency is in a vicious circle. The more that international investors dump pounds in favour of other currencies, the further the exchange rate falls, triggering more anxiety and more currency sales. Momentum is building, with many analysts predicting the pound has further to fall. Currencies can swing wildly from what are seen as equilibrium points.
There is no denying the pain caused by a weaker pound. Harold Wilson's risible claim when he devalued sterling in 1967 that it made no difference to “the pound in your pocket” became a byword for political disingenuousness.
But that does not make the weakening currency a bad thing. The exchange rate is the shock absorber that helps to soften the economic bumps. By making exporters and Britain's tourist industry more competitive, it helps to restore economic growth. By making imports more expensive, it helps to divert spending to home-produced goods and services. The puny pound is a symptom, but also part of the cure.
Britain's difficulties have triggered fresh calls for the country to re-examine joining the single currency. Certainly, being part of a beefy and more stable currency bloc has attractions in such turbulent times. But if anything, the crisis has strengthened the arguments of the “no” camp. Britain has the flexibility to slash interest rates to zero. There is no such option for weaker eurozone economies, such as Italy and Greece, nor for economies grappling with property boom and bust - such as Ireland and Spain. How those economies cope with the single currency may determine whether Britain eventually dusts down its own euro plans.
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this "global" recession which Brown would have us believe,
began in the US, strangely is having a larger impact on the
British economy than any other.
how gullible must the British public be to fear anything less than a disaster for years to come?
unemployment is set to soar in 2009.
JohnA, Derby, UK
When the vast majority want nothing whatsoever to do with the EEC in the first place, why on Earth does anybody imagine that we would want to adopt the Euro?
Clive Burghard , Lancing, England
Why should we even consider joing the euro now - British manufacturing and tourism should be siezing this opportunity in 09 and kick start economic growth again. Look at Northern Ireland, up to 60% of trade is coming from Eurozone Ireland. a weak pound may just save us!
RS, Belfast ,
Now the times anaysts ar praising the good old italian economic policies!!! Such a pity what this great country has become....
This kind of devaluation could have helped a country with a strong export driven industry 5 south korea, japan, germany, etc...) but the UK doesn' hav any...
gaet, Namur, Belgium
Happy New Year and maybe 2009 will be year Britain dumped its pound and adopted the euro...Anyway, funny to read that those who most question the euro are precisely those who have retained their former units. I am happy with the euro:) Sound, solid a rock, as good as the DM. Overvalued? well...
pascal-Piere, Dinan, Brittany, EU, france
It seems all reporters have now been brainwashed with this idea that a weak (devestated) currency is good. When will the media acknowledge this is a disaster? when the euro buys £2 perhaps?
Inflation will hit hard later in 2009. Interest rates will have to rise. Dont borrow money!
klara, Leeds, UK
Or we could join the $. Or how about the new currency being launched next year by the GCC countries Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait etc? Any views?
Julian, Paris, France
You can bash the pound all you like but it wont change the fact that the Eurozone is largely made up of basket case economies that are in far greater economic peril than the UK.
With the Euro at these levels, Spain, Italy, Ireland, etc will see economic collapse and their unemployment will soar.
John, Glasgow, UK
Why does the Govt think lowering interest rates is the answer? The problem is not the cost of money, but its availability. Lower the cost, no-one will lend. A 5% or 6% fixed rate = plenty of lenders, plenty of borrowers. 1% or 0% interest = no lenders and a worthless currency. Brown's legacy!
CRMB, Manchester,
Tom in London, London, UK
From Jan.2004 to Nov.2007, almost 4 years it was very stable at £1=1.45+/-0.05. Perhaps that's when we should have got in but now is not the rate to enter. They wouldn't admit us anyway with the debt we have.
Richard, Alicante, Spain
With the economic problems which Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain have plus the downturn in Germany, I have a feeling that even the euro-zone economy doesn't meet the minimum requirements for entry in the euro-zone. What a paradox!!
Richard, Alicante, Spain
Pound/Euro rate reflects UK poor economic prospects our Gold sold at £2B loss,our growth fuelled by borrowing; housing and commercial property bubble; over reliance on financial services 5/10 biggest companies were banks before the crunch The foregoing can be expressed as the failure of BROWN
Derek Edgley, Ellon,
During a recent visit to Prague 17th - 21st December, we sat down for 1 cup of coffee and 2 cups of hot chocolate in the old town square, our bill for these three drinks was £15. This Mr. Brown is what our £ is really worth on the open market and soon all imported goods will be just as expensive
Barbara, Hereford, U.K.
For those who can't see why currency devaluations during recessions are good, think back to 1992 when the pound devalued by falling out of the ERM: the recession ended and the UK had 17 years of uninterrupted growth. Or think back to the 30s depression, which ended in each country when it devalued.
bill, Madrid,
There is no upside to any country's currency going down the toilet. Ask anyone that's left in Zimbabwe, with the possible exception of Mugabe.
Visitors to the UK will soon find that although they might be getting lots of Pounds for their currency, they will need a lot of Pounds to buy anything.
Ian, Nanteuil, France
I don't think this is good for Britain, but it's great for us to be able to buy things online from Britain and pay in euros what the Brits pay in pounds... For so long, the UK was a country we couldn't afford to shop in!
Helene, Strasbourg, France
I like immigrants more than most, in fact, they make up virtually all of my friends and family, but, fear a virtuous economic upswing led by tourism and exporting, being undermined by the withdrawal from the economy of funds by immigrant workers in those sectors, to remit to their families abroad.
Jonathan, Hertford, UK
I remember people who were against joining the Euro telling me that joining it would mean they would lose money - well not joining it has done that for them already. If we had gone in when it first started we would have had about 1 Euro and 50 cents to the pound, now we would be lucky to get a Euro.
Gareth James, Cardiff, Wales
Exports, what exports?!
We were exporting financial services.
Anthony, London,
As an ex-pat in Greece I can tell you that everyone here is grateful they are in the Eurozone for if the old drachma was in circulation it would have certainly collapsed like the Hungarian and Sweedish currencies. Much more difficult then to deal with a crisis for a small nation
George, Greece,
Don't be absurd. What with the UK's borrowings totally out of control and the incredible weakness of its currency, it wouldn't even qualify to be admitted to the 2-year monitoring and control period any currency wishing to join the Euro has to successfully pass before being admitted.
Tom in London, London, UK
How much costs a liter of milk?
Peter, Berlin, Germany
The falling pound will make much of what we buy very much more expensive. It will have only a tiny impact on exports. The net impact will be a massive fall in our standard of living. There is no silver lining other than when we realise we really are poor maybe we will start facing up to reality
Max Mentor, Gerrards Cross, UK
This misses the real point about Britain's economy. Several euro countries have suffered a property crash like Spain BUT their banks remain strong. The pound has plummeted because of an endemic failure across the board due to Browns mishandling of the economy like banking and public expenditure.
Mike, Alicante, Spain