John Waples
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Eric Daniels, chief executive of Lloyds TSB, has grown used to the chorus of divergent opinion his planned £4.8 billion takeover of HBOS has aroused.
It splits into two camps — those who believe the takeover will be a huge handicap to Lloyds’ future profit growth and those who believe it is buying its rival on the cheap.
That latter view is shared by Mathewson and his fellow Scottish knight Sir Peter Burt, who have mounted a campaign to keep HBOS independent.
Daniels disagrees with both. He is adamant his deal offers the best package to HBOS investors, calls it “a fair price” and says both “sets of shareholders will participate in the synergies” that are expected to top £1.5 billion.
He concedes there will be issues and points to the HBOS balance sheet that requires future funding, its need for more capital and future impairment charges. But he says the deal will give peace of mind to HBOS investors.
This week the Lloyds TSB takeover is expected to pass its first hurdle when it — and an accompanying government- backed £7 billion fundraising — go before Lloyds investors for approval. There is still time for other bidders to emerge before investors in HBOS, headed by Andy Hornby, vote next month, but time is running out.
Daniels said his bank has so far invested 5,000 man days studying the HBOS portfolio and that is why he believes “a very fair deal” has been constructed — one that has the unanimous support of the HBOS board.
Lloyds has already announced the board structure of the deal, which is dominated by its own team, and now Daniels is interviewing for the second wave of senior appointments. He says he has been impressed by some HBOS candidates.
On the speculation of the 30,000 jobs that may go over time, Daniels said the figure was unduly alarmist. He was confident most will go through natural attrition over the next three years and there will not be a mass cull. Lloyds’ normal attrition rate is about 10% a year.
Throughout this takeover, Lloyds has dressed itself up as the stronger partner, but its critics say that if the bank was that well run why does it need £7 billion, compared with its market value of £10 billion, and just £3.5 billion less than is being raised by HBOS? Daniels said his bank is raising less than his main rivals and the size of the fundraising is down to “shock and awe” policies set by the Financial Services Authority on capital ratios that required banks to overcapitalise. It is for this reason the City thinks the government’s preference shares will be repaid earlier than expected and that the bank will be able resume dividend payments earlier as well.
Lloyds TSB has said integrating the two businesses will take three years. When completed it will give the group a unique position in the British banking sector and a balance sheet that will ultimately allow it to search for a continental partner to give it an international platform. Daniels is confident that shareholders in both banks will support the deal.
The difficulty of HBOS remaining independent was underlined on Friday when it published its fundraising document. HBOS chairman Lord Stevenson said there was a danger it would have to be nationalised if the deal was blocked. “There can be no certainty as to the sources of capital if the resolutions are not passed,” he said.
That warning may not stop Burt and Mathewson pursuing their campaign, but it could make it harder for them to get support.
The next four weeks will be crucial. Lloyds TSB’s case will be made easier if the economy continues to deteriorate, but if it shows signs of stabilising the case for HBOS staying independent will look stronger.
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