Goldman Sachs, the world’s most successful bank, is believed to have told investors that one of its main hedge funds has lost almost $1 billion in the past nine months.

The flagship fund, which was launched only in January and raised $6 billion, is thought to have lost more than 15 per cent of its value.

The loss comes as the bank is preparing to report its first quarterly loss since flotation nearly a decade ago, according to a leading analyst. Guy Moszkowski, of Merrill Lynch, reduced his forecast for Goldman’s fourth-quarter profit yesterday from a $2.98-a-share profit ($1.3 billion) to a 49-cents-a-share loss ($216 million).

In a note to investors, Mr Moszkowski said: “Goldman Sachs is particularly exposed to global equity market corrections because of its large corporate private equity portfolio, equity prop trading business and exposure to Chinese equities.

“Both Industrial & Commercial Bank of China [in which Goldman has a stake] and the global markets have corrected about 30 per cent in the last few weeks, likely driving a $2 billion-plus mark in these positions.”

Mr Moszkowski estimated that Goldman would also write down its loans portfolio backing private equity deals by $1.3 billion (£822 million) for the quarter ending on November 30. Goldman Sachs, which floated in May 1999, reported a 70 per cent decline in its third-quarter profits to $845 million on the back of a $1.1 billion hit from the credit crunch, as well as weak trading and advisory revenues.

The investment bank announced plans last month to cut 3,300 jobs from its worldwide workforce of 33,000 as it attempts to trim its cost base to match a changed financial world.

Jobs in proprietary trading, leveraged loans, prime brokerage and mergers and acquisitions and equity capital markets look extremely vulnerable because of the sharp drop in business suffered by all investment banks.

Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford Bernstein, said whether Goldman makes a profit or a loss in the fourth quarter would hinge largely on how much it cuts staff bonuses. “This has been a very bad quarter. The only markets to do well are Treasuries and that’s not good. But people should recognise that Goldman is unique in paying themselves after the stock holders.

“We should see a pretty substantial drop in terms of compensation and that should keep it in profit.”

Mr Hintz forecast that Goldman would make a $1.81 a share profit.

Times Recommends

• ‘Lame duck’ fear for FSA as chief quits
• Storm over bailout of EU's most ailing economy
• Northern Rock to drop 100% savings guarantee