Iain Dey
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ABBEY will reveal this week that it has swept up billions of pounds in customer savings from rivals after the uncertainty generated by the £37 billion bank bailout scheme.
The bank is due to announce third-quarter figures on Tuesday which are expected to show it is still making profits and capturing more than 20% of the UK mortgage market.
However, the figures come amid mounting speculation that Abbey’s Spanish parent group, Santander, is under pressure to raise more capital.
The rumours have intensified after a string of bad news from South America, where Santander has huge exposures.
Fears about Asia and Latin America becoming infected by the credit crunch have also hit Standard Chartered and HSBC, which saw their share prices fall by 19% and 16%, respectively, on Friday.
Standard Chartered is rumoured to be considering whether it should raise additional equity.
Expectations that Santander may raise capital have been heightened by rumours that the Bank of Spain has opened talks with several Spanish banks about the possible need to boost their capital ratios.
Any capital raising would come in addition to plans by the Spanish government to buy up to €50 billion (£40 billion) of toxic assets from the banks.
Santander has been one of the big winners from the credit crunch so far, having bought Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley (B&B) in Britain and Sovereign Bancorp in America.
The bank was also brought into discussions with the US Federal Reserve as a possible buyer for distressed American banks such as Washington Mutual and Wachovia.
In the first six months of 2008 Abbey supplied 35% of all the new mortgages issued in the UK. Although growth is expected to have slowed, the bank’s market share is still likely to be high.
Abbey’s standing with British consumers has been bolstered by its role in the B&B deal, where Abbey was used by the government as a safe haven for B&B’s £20 billion of customer deposits.
Analysts believe Abbey has been one of the main beneficiaries of the “flight to quality” by consumers. HSBC has benefited as well.
Royal Bank of Scotland is this week expected to take a further £4 billion to £5 billion in writedowns as it publishes the prospectus to support its £20 billion fundraising. The share issue is still a source of confusion for some investors.
Managers of index-tracker funds are in talks with the government over whether the stakes it buys in British banks will count as part of the free float of the company.
If they do, the trackers will be forced to buy shares in the forthcoming rights issues to maintain index weightings, which would radically reduce the amount of capital the government would need to invest.
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To Ian from Tokyo,
I can understand that things from Tokyo can be seen differently but, let me explain you how things are in London (or Edinburgh): HBOS and RBS are bankrupt for not knowing their business fundamentals. So far, HSBC, SAN, DB and others are in soooo much better shape...
William Ousborne, London,
Santander has been bluffing its way through this crisis. They are in more trouble than the British banks but using easy cash from the ECB to fund acquisitions.
Ian, Tokyo, Japan