Miles Costello and Helen Power
Enter our Snapshots of Summer photography competition
Regulators could be forced to shut down markets for as long as a fortnight in order to stanch the panic beginning to beset the hedge fund industry, a leading expert predicted yesterday.
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University, told a London conference that hundreds of hedge funds are poised to fail as frantic investors rush to redeem their assets and force managers into a fire sale of assets. He said: “We've reached a situation of sheer panic. Don't be surprised if policymakers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days.”
Jon Moulton, the private equity investor behind Alchemy Partners, forecast a tidal wave of hedge fund collapses in the next three months. “We estimate 60 per cent of the capacity of UK hedge funds will go this year, through bankruptcies and redemptions,” Mr Moulton told The Times.
Professor Roubini is a former senior adviser to the US Treasury. A well-known bear on economic prospects for the world economy, he predicted in February that a catastrophic financial meltdown was on the way. “This is the worst financial crisis in the US, Europe and now emerging markets that we've seen in a long time,” he told the Hedge 2008 London conference.
There are widespread predictions of calamity in the hedge fund sector, which has been thrown into crisis by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the Wall Street investment bank, and the ensuing turmoil in world markets.
Andrew Umbers, the chief executive of Evolution Securities, told The Times last night that as much as 25 per cent could be wiped off the value of hedge fund assets under management as a result of the combined effects of performance losses and redemption calls this year. Mr Umbers has predicted that one hedge fund in four will fail by the end of the year. If right, his forecast could mean that hedge funds have lost up to $500 billion (£310 billion) of assets over the full year, having peaked with investments at $2 trillion.
Emmanuel Roman, the co-chief executive of GLG Partners, the New York-based hedge fund, joined other experts yesterday in predicting that hundreds of hedge funds will fail before the year end. “In a fairly Darwinian manner, many hedge funds will simply disappear,” Mr Roman told the conference. He said that regulators would move to impose order on the industry.
Performance at hedge funds has plummeted this year as unprecedented market turbulence and unpredictable changes in economic forecasts, particularly involving inflation, have placed many investors on the wrong side of big directional bets. Investors redeemed about $31 billion of hedge fund assets globally during the three months to the end of September and a further $179 billion was wiped off the value of their holdings by falling markets, according to Hedge Fund Research, the Chicago-based research firm.
Hedge funds lost 4.6 per cent during September, according to EurekaHedge, another research firm, which said that the investment class was on course to post annual losses for the first time since 1998.
Several legendary funds have suffered heavily this year, including Toscafund, which is down 55 per cent for the year to date, and Citadel, which has lost an estimated 27 per cent for investors.
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the collective power of smart thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Flip MinoHD Camcorder
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
42,945
2008
71,450
Car Insurance
Not Specified
MI6
UK-based
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Save up to £1,000 per couple with Elite Vacations at the five-star Constance Lemuria Resort
and do the British Isles this Summer.
Save up to 60% with Oxford Hotels and Inns
Try our inspiring luxury holidays to the Indian Subcontinent and South East Asia.
Great offers available
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
Hedge funds are necessary evil to make the markets work better.
But ever growing greed must/will come to a pay back.
Reasonable returns above the market avg should be permissible.
If not you put the poor people money like retirement accounts
in jeopardy. Now Henry Paulson (GS) is King of Hedgefund.
simon, Chicago, USA
The 90's saw the tech bubble; the 2000's saw the hedge fund bubble. I think it is time for people to focus on the asset they have insider information on - ie themselves - and get back to work. The "Money for Nothing" culture needs to go away. The era of irrational asset inflation is dead
dieter, London, uk
The chickens come home to roost. Hedge funds were built on unrealistic high returns. With many funds based offshore investors did not question managers' massive fees and gains so long as the speculation produced results. This is a natural reaction when greed turns to fear. They should all disappear.
peterfieldman, paris, france