Christine Seib
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A canny company welcomes unduly pessimistic forecasts of its profits or lack thereof, so Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) was unlikely to have been unhappy with analysts' predictions that it was heading for Britain's biggest banking loss. Compared with a possible loss of £1.7 billion, as had been suggested, today's £692 million slide into the red looks better than it might have.
RBS's timing has also been good. When other banks were wavering over whether to ask for cash, RBS went big and bold with a £12 billion capital-raising. This meant that it could give the market ample notice of its writedowns, allowing today's £5.6 billion charge to have been digested well ahead of the interim figures.
The bank has been one of the toughest markers in the sector of its own investments, so the worst news may now be out there with regard to its structured credit book. Plus, as the final bank to report its interims, RBS has the benefit of the dire warnings given by its rivals to prepare the market.
The bank has done what it needed to do - provide some good news for investors on the ABN Amro synergies. And it has ensured that it sounds suitably sorry about the loss, something that would not have been a given from Sir Fred Goodwin in the past. There will undoubtedly be continued grumbling about the chief executive but he is remains the best person to integrate ABN. Today's figures are likely to be enough to give him breathing space.
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Financial predictions should depend on fundamentals. Period! Unfortunately, in this second hand world, the impact of predictions depend on the matrix of power, not fundamentals. The fortunes of a company often depend on the thumbs up (or down) of an idolized snake oil salesman turned financial guru
Mathew Maavak, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia