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So who is next? As advisers to Bear Stearns struggle to find a buyer or funding in the next 28 days, Wall Street, the City and the financial district in Tokyo were scrabbling to find out who is the most exposed to Bear Stearns, either through loans or trading positions.
Traders in all three centres were panicking even for those banks not directly exposed to Bear. They feared that the problems experienced at the stricken bank signalled that the credit crisis has deteriorated to a new level.
Yesterday, traders began to look anxiously at the robustness of Lehman Brothers, which, although bigger than Bear, is small compared with JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup.
Shares in Lehman dropped 11 per cent yesterday, a far bigger fall than its other rivals, which saw their stock decline by about 3 per cent.
Although Lehman is more diversified than Bear, it has a similar investment profile, with huge holdings in mortgage-backed debt. Lehman sought to reassure the market when it said yesterday that it had secured a $2 billion (£1 billion) credit line with Paolo Tonucci, the bank’s global treasurer, calling it “a strong signal from the market and our key bank relationships”.
However, Chris Whalen, of the Wall Street consultancy Institutional Risk Analytics, said: “This is going to go all the way up the chain. There is a risk that all broker dealers are going to become an endangered species if the credit crisis is not sorted out. If they can’t fund themselves, they will have to shrink. All the other firms are in danger, too.”
He said that should the US Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and the Securities and Exchange Commission not devise a broad rescue plan to address the credit turmoil on Wall Street this weekend, “I would not be surprised to see an emergency bank holiday announced. That hasn’t happened since Roosevelt.” During the Depression, 75 years ago almost to the day, Franklin Roosevelt declared a four-day bank holiday, which stemmed a frantic run on banks. Mr Whalen added that should banks such as Lehman continue to be unable to sell the billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities held, they were doomed. He said: “Broker dealers have to be able to get rid of assets. If they are illiquid, they die.”
Over the past ten years, global banks increased their issuance of mortgage-backed securities to feed a growing appetite for what investors believed were high yet stable yields. In 1998, banks issued $16.4 billion of the securities, according to calculations by Thomson Financial. By last year, the issuance figure had ballooned to $366 billion. Issuance so far this year is $4 billion.
The Royal Bank of Scotland was the world's biggest underwriter of mortgage-backed securities last year. An underwriting bank takes responsibility for selling the securities into the market.
RBS underwrote $44.7 billion of securities, taking a 12 per cent share of the market. Bear Stearns was the eighteenth-largest underwriter in 2007, underwriting $6.3 billion of the investments.
Fears of a UK financial casualty were also alive in the Square Mile, with banking stocks among the biggest losers on the stock market yesterday. HBOS, the UK’s biggest mortgage bank, led the sector down as the FTSE 100’s biggest faller, dropping more than 6 per cent to 528p a share, while Barclays closed down almost 5 per cent at 433p. Their shares fell even though British banks have tiny exposures to the American mortgage market in comparison with the big US and European investment banks.
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Put all the loaners (including Wall Street officials) in jail who put out loans that never should have been. Recoup the people's money from their institutions, along with their fancy bonuses, and use it to undergird those homeowners who can pay their mortages with a little help. If the bonus money is already spent, take it from their personal accounts. Get rid of any lobbyists and political representatives who can be proved to have had a direct hand in this. Work toward getting rid of the Federal Reserve. Make the penalties as severe as they can be for the loan sharks who are preying as the mortgage scams deepen. Do not sell any real estate back to the schemers. Decree that whoever wins the presidency next fall will have to take Ron Paul as their veep, and give him a free hand in helping clean up this mess. He's still running, you know, in spite of what the media says.
Helen, Kansas City, MO
helen hayes, Blue Springs, USA/MO
The taxpayers had to bail out Bear so the top execs wouldn't lose face AND their bonuses.
Kim, Dallas, TX
Debt-based monetary systems cannot survive indefinitely. Time for the people to establish a barter system and tangible money independent of what would be desired by the Bank of Int'l Settlements, Bank of England and its subsidiary, the Federal Reserve in the US. Yeah...some of us are aware that bankers run government, despite the appearances and window dressing.
Lem, Horsham, Pennsylvania
No banker shenanigans. No lies. No bankruptcy.
Buy Gold. Buy Silver. They're paid in full.
A refuge in time of storm. Don't sink.
Mike, Madison, Wisconsin,
Northern Rock was the tip of the iceberg and it has costed UK at least £3000 per tax payer. Mr Darling just tried to either delay the inevitable by nationalising Northern Rock and/or signalled to all other banks that if they declare that they are going to go belly up the ultimate sugar daddy, the Government, will come to their rescue.
Whether they admit or not, all the banks are in deep trouble. They never come clean with their business models to show how they differ from each other. I suspect they don't by much.
Just look how over the years the banks have been decreasing your daily cash withdrawal limit. Now to get £1000 in cash you have to give them several days notice. They are so short of cash in hand that panic can ensue anytime even if say 10% of depositors want to withdraw 10% of their deposits from a particular bank on a given day. That's only 1% of the deposits.
I would like any bank to categorically say that they can let 1% of deposits be withdrawn in cash.
Dr Alok Bhattacharyya, London, UK
What about the exposure of British banks to British mortgages? That makes the risks of the US "subprim" pale in comparison.
In my opinion, Barclays is the most at risk followed by RBS and HBOS. A&L, B&B and Lloyds will be secondary casulaties.
HSBC had the nerver to announce early and take measures pre-emptively. Thus they are likely to be be the last man standing
Eric Masaba, London, UK