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to The Sunday Times
Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor, today declared that the United States was in a recession as he withdrew an offer to bail out the increasingly troubled bond insurance industry.
Mr Buffett, the world's third-richest man, said that "from a commonsense standpoint right now we're in recession", despite the fact America had yet to report two consecutive quarterly falls in gross domestic product, the technical definition of a downturn.
He conceded that the economic environment was "nothing like '73 or '74", when the US was in recession and inflation reached 12.1 per cent, but he said that investors should not rule out the possibility of a severe downturn.
Evidence that the recession in residential construction has spread across America's entire building industry emerged today after official numbers showed a sharp slowdown in public and corporate projects.
Construction spending overall in January dropped 1.7 per cent, far worse than Wall Street's expectations of a 0.7 per cent decline. However, for the first time in two years, non-residential and public sector building - which includes new hospitals and office blocks - shrank 1.2 per cent.
The grim construction data suggests that the credit crisis which erupted last summer has hit company spending, spilling over from the financial sector across corporate America as a whole.
Manufacturing data published yesterday also showed another sharp slowdown in February with output at its lowest since April 2003.
Wall Street is expecting another half a percentage point interest rate cut this month, which would see the cost of borrowing fall to 2.5 per cent.
Meanwhile, Mr Buffett also confirmed that a deal to reinsure $800 billion (£403 billion) worth of government-issued bonds, known as municipal bonds, was "not on the table" any longer.
The bonds had been underwritten by MBIA, Ambac and Financial Guaranty Insurance and a deal would have provided a significant boost to the industry. It is feared that insurers will not have sufficient funds to pay billions of dollars worth of claims on toxic investments.
It is understood that Mr Buffett had offered to reinsure the bonds but only at a steep premium which was rejected by the three insurers. However, Mr Buffett had kept his offer on the table until today.
Last week his company, Berkshire Hathaway Investments, revealed an 18 per cent fall in fourth-quarter profit as income from insurance underwriting fell. Full-year profit rose by 20 per cent to $13.21 billion.
Berkshire Hathaway invests in 76 businesses including Tesco, the UK's largest supermarket, of which it owns 2.9 per cent.
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This is the usual junk. Creating panic! that's how the consumer get's suckered into believing the 'chicken little ' stories. The the good ole boys set back and laugh. The Sad part is We fall for it.
Sharon, Rensselaer, USA
Today's dollar has a buying power of 10 cents compared to a 1972 dollar. For example, a home sellng for $15K in 1972 is now selling for $150K-$200K. A candy bar that cost 10 cents in 1972 is now priced at 99 cents.
That's a ten fold increase in both cases, I don't see your point. From that, it's an across the board increase.
Keith Wilson, Beziers, France
Ha! i'm refusing to believe the doom and gloom scenarios of the economists right now.
or over four years, they have consistently told us that we are in, going in, could be in and many other variants of being in a reccession.
What they should come clean about is the fact that they wish we were in one.
It's the same with the value of homes.....
the people who are enjoying their jobs and spending their money are constantly defeating these seers......and long may they reign.....
We must resist any attempts at these vagabonds from depreciating the values of our hard work so that they can jump in for a quick profit while we are down.
pazz, London, Uk
I generally listen to Bush @!
Sophie RD, London, UK
^^Who are going to believe? Someone who led America into a war on lies, or the smartest investor on the planet?
Justin, Toronto, Canada
It doesn't matter what George Bush says, though he does deserve some credit: he has succeeded in making the most important job in the world irrelevant.
JP Harrison, Saratoga, California
One man is very intelligent and is running an extremely successful business, the other man appears to have very limited intelligence and has a history of failure. Who would I trust with telling the truth and knowing what is going on in the world? Warren Buffett
J. Clark, Yakima, WA
We are seeing the post WWII economic tectonic plates shifting. No longer is the USA the sole economic power, it is now China/Asia, EU and USA. Global investors will have to make sure USA Bankers do not externalise their sub-prime is CDOs and CDSs.
Andrew, London, UK
Not many people saved money in the last decade this will be a hard lesson to learn now the good times are over and the consumer knows all to well that is the situation the consumer carried the economy for a long time that may just be about to come to an end just like the easy credit .
JJ, LONDON, UK
I'm no fan of Bush, but my guess is that he was trying to avoid a comment that would decrease consumer confidence.
KH, Boston, MA
Today's dollar has a buying power of 10 cents compared to a 1972 dollar. For example, a home sellng for $15K in 1972 is now selling for $150K-$200K. A candy bar that cost 10 cents in 1972 is now priced at 99 cents.
Inspite the federal governments ENRON style accounting inflation in America since 1972 is running 1000%.
this is why our health care is outragiously expensive. why american's can no longer afford housing. Our wages have not remotely kept pace with true inflation. One other aspect Buffet doesn't get into is the fact in 1973 America didn't have 10 credit cards maxed out per person.
America faces one of two choices, either accept the inflationary policy of the federal government, and further devalue the dollar, or start paying off our national debt, and plunge America into a deep recession.
Christopher Dunn, Eugene, USA/Oregon
who do you think is right?
tim, london,
Didn't George Bush say that America is not in recession last week?Who's right,they carn't both be.
stephen hulton, eure, france