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European banks, including BNP Paribas and Santander, are understood to be stepping up efforts to evaluate bids for Société Générale, the French bank rocked by a rogue-trading scandal. Sources close to the matter say that the two are the most likely to step forward with an offer if SocGen is further destabilised by a forced resignation of Daniel Bouton, the chairman and chief executive.
One source said: “French banks are the most likely to be able to assimilate it, but it will be impossible for them not to make sweeping layoffs to achieve the synergies.” Another said: “There are a fair number of calories being expended on this. Every investment bank is spending time on it.”
Shares in SocGen leapt more than 10 per cent to €78.45 yesterday amid repeated market talk that BNP could launch a bid of at least €92 a share. It is also possible that sovereign wealth funds and private equity firms, such as Blackstone or TPG, could step forward to buy a stake in the stricken bank, although sources said that they were likely to wait for Mr Bouton's outcome before making a move.
The SocGen board will meet today to discuss the preliminary findings of an investigation by its audit committee into the rogue trader's activities. The board is also likely to consider the future of Mr Bouton, who said yesterday that his resignation remained on the table.
The French Government continued to pile pressure on Mr Bouton, with Bernard Accoyer, a representative of President Sarkozy's UMP party, saying: “In the storm, there must be leadership that can continue to pilot the ship that is in a very difficult passage.” Insiders said it was likely that the chief executive would be forced to step down.
Credit Suisse analysts said that a takeover of SocGen was “not impossible”, with bids likely to be tabled at between €85 and €111 a share. But potential bidders could hit a barrier in the form of the Doctrine Trichet, an informal rule under which the French Government frowns on hostile cross-border acquisitions of domestic companies. The Government used the doctrine last year to encourage a merger between Gaz de France and Suez to stop a takeover attempt for Suez by Enel, its Italian rival.
The French Prime Minister said yesterday that the Government similarly would halt unwanted approaches for SocGen. François Fillon said: “The Government is very much on its guard against all attempts to destabilise Société Générale ... The Government will not let Société Générale be the object of hostile raids by other companies.” However, sources said that the Government was likely to view a rescue attempt as a different proposition from a hostile bid.
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