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Goldman Sachs has bucked the trend on Wall Street after it emerged that the bank made a $4 billion (£2 billion) profit from betting on the collapse of America’s sub-prime mortgage industry while key rivals, such as Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, made multibillion-dollar losses on investments in high-risk home loans.
The gains were realised after Michael Swenson, 40, and Josh Birnbaum, 35, two members of Goldman Sachs’s so-called structured products trading group, persuaded their firm that the sub-prime mortgage market was heading for trouble. They believed that mortgage lending criteria had become so lax that a jump in defaults on high-risk home loans was inevitable and would drag down the value of the bonds that they backed.
It is understood that Mr Swenson and Mr Birnbaum had to argue there case fiercely with some colleagues who questioned their judgment. However, Dan Sparks, the head of the group’s mortgage department, backed them and Goldman Sachs decided to bet heavily against sub-prime loans. The three are expected to be awarded bonuses of between $5 million and $15 million each.
The profits will take Goldman Sachs to an expected $11 billion profit for the year, marking a record for the group, as competitors report significant earnings declines and even losses.
The gains from the mortgage derivative investments have more than offset a loss of between $1.5 billion and $2 billion that Goldman has suffered on its other home loan-related holdings, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Traders at Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley also bet against the sub-prime mortgage market this year, but in each case, their gains were essentially wiped out because their banks underestimated how far the markets would fall, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Meanwhile, Citigroup, UBS and Merrill Lynch are among the banks that have reported multibillion-dollar losses on investments in securities backed by sub-prime mortgages. In each case, the chief executive resigned after the losses came to light.
Goldman Sachs said this week that staff would share in an $18.8 billion bonus pool worth on average $600,000 for each of their near30,000 staff worldwide, compared with $16.5 billion last year.
Lloyd Blankfein, the chairman and chief executive of Goldman Sachs, is expected to record a 30 per cent increase in his pay to $70 million.
Goldman Sachs’s profits for the first nine months of this year were $8.4 billion, up a third on the same period last year, despite writing off about $1.7 billion of debt.
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I think the news story misses the point... The "short bet" that Goldman is supposed to have made was, in fact, the definitional opposite of a bet - they were hedging the firm's exposure to the sub-prime mortgage market. That sort of caution is usually regarded as prudent risk management.
Andrew, New York, USA
Goldman are shrewd operators indeed. Now they're telling us to short gold in 2008, but you have to question this when the dollar money supply is being inflated at 18%...
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html#m3b
It couldn't be because they need to unwind their own short positions, could it?
Andy Cook, London,
Why did'nt someone tell me? i should have had a bet too.
stan white, Leeds, england
George Bush is trying to prop up the US housing market whilst Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions are shorting it.
I wonder how much of the Central Banks aid package will end up in funds shorting property around the globe. It will help the financial instutions hedge their positions (as Goldman Sachs did so well) but unfortunately will make the crisis worse in the end as it drives property prices down.
Keith, Ashford,
There is a big difference between free markets and megalithically leveraged players in markets that make obscene profits at the expense of so many others, mostly small players to simple overmortgaged lay homeowners of rapidly inflated homes losing all of their life's works savings and credit worthiness. Who made it ethical to pit banks against ordinary working homeowners and then tout the wonders of the "free market system"? Goldman has the top competition of in-house lawyers, bankers, financial experts, brokers, strategists, marketeers and influence. The worker has a wife, children, a dog and a huge mortgage which he knows is a stretch, but how else will he own his own home to house his family? It feels all wrong, looks wrong, and then the banks on the losing side of their bets want the taxpayers to bail them out. This isn't a free market for the home owner, and they are getting squeezed viciously by both sides. This is anything but a free market for ordinary people.
Brian Stewart, Los Angeles, USA
Opening scene.
Boys boys, donât vorry so much, Goldman Sachs sold and packaged the CDO's to you all so what? Did they force you to buy them? Was there no demand? So they shorted the market of their own toxic waste products, isn't everyone entitled to a little insurance already? So you will see this year we made a few shekels to share amongst ourselves, maybe 18.8 billion dollars or something, maybe 70 million for Mr. Blankfein,who knows, who knows, but we earned it didn't we? Arenât Mr. Paulson and our own Mr. Bernanke trying to help you all in this little sub prime credit mess? What about our Mr. Rubin taking the helm at Citibank? You think we will not make some more funds available to you all? Havenât we always? Ok, so the interest will be a little higher, but think of our risks already. Nu, stop vorrying all of you, so a couple of million homes get repossessed, it will be better for you all in the long run, have a nice holiday, be happy, next year you can buy a cheaper home, it will get better, its no sin to make a profit....close curtain.
Free unregulated markets helping us all....but not the rest of us, not yetâ¦(sic)
Keith Pirelli, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
Well done!
Is this the same sub-prime mortgage market out of which GS were creating and selling MBS and other derivatives from 2004 onwards (and at a time when the current US Treasury Secretary was its head)?
In short, were GS shorting the very products they were peddling to others?
Ian, Chalon, France