Patrick Hosking, Banking and Finance Editor
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Jitters over the credit crunch inflicted fresh pain on investors yesterday as shares in Alliance & Leicester, Bradford & Bingley and other banks fell heavily and the wider stock market lurched lower.
Fears that its reliance on paralysed wholesale funding markets could hurt A&L sent its shares diving 25½p to 581½p, while B&B slid 18¼p to 257p.
A&L was forced to put out a statement saying that it could see “no reason” for investors to sell shares. Other banks were also under fire, with Royal Bank of Scotland falling to within a whisker of the 400p mark. The cost of lending between banks rose yesterday with three-month Libor at a two-month high of 6.4475 per cent.
RBS is coming under mounting pressure to declare its exposure to the US sub-prime market after Barclays finally yielded to investor demand last week and revealed the extent of its losses. RBS is not due to put out a preclose statement until 6 December.
The souring sentiment over bank shares helped to push the FTSE 100 170.4 points lower to 6,120.8, wiping £40 billion from the value of portfolios. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 218.40 points at 12,958.40.
Fears that Northern Rock shareholders would be left with little of value from any of the rescue proposals tabled added to the gloom. Shares dived 21 per cent to a low of 104.2p after it said that none of the proposals put forward so far valued its shares at anywhere close to existing levels.
Traders were nervous that more banks would be directly hit by the crisis or indirectly by the shortage of liquidity that has pushed up interbank lending rates to unprecedented levels.
UBS, the Swiss bank, may have lost as much as $9 billion (£4.4 billion) on collateralised debt obligations - investment vehicles investing in asset-backed securities including sub-prime mortgages – according to Credit-Sights, a New York research firm.
UBS scotched the report as “incompatible” with its expectation of a fourth-quarter profit, but the anxious mood was intensified when Dresdner Kleinwort cut its recommendation on UBS from “buy” to “hold”.
European and American banks have already written off more than $50 billion on securities linked to sub-prime mortgages, but many analysts say that, nevertheless, they have not recognised the severity of the problem. Losses could reach $400 billion worldwide, according to the most pessimistic forecasts.
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I coudn't agree more (Brown to blame for lack of oversight on Northern's exposure). He has much more to answer for. I was disgusted when I first heard the claims that he was the greatest Chancellor in living memory. His manipulation of data (thanks to his cronies at the ONC) and scandalous disregard for the truth is only now coming back to haunt him. Sadly we will all pay dearly.
Any strength in the economy over the last 15 years had nothing to do with Gordon Brown - it is directly attributable to the rising value in property. Where does that leave us? As we look at declining property values, and at best a major slowdown in the economy, at worst a recession, boomers are about to leave the market never to return. They have long been the main contributors to the healthy rise in stocks, but are now at the age where they are no longer net contributors as they start to draw down their assets for their retirement needs.
Buckle up! It's going to be a rocky ride.
Andrew Gaynor, Maidenhead, Berks
One has to question how much debt are we really talking about here!!
Also it's the city slickers who have smelled blood and are looking for a quick profit and are shorting the market down with shares they dont have and not the normal shareholders selling.
Louis Blanc, Liverpool, UK
I still do not understand how it was that the regulatory authorities never enquired as to why Northern Rock's business model of very long term mortgage assets and very short term liabilities was not inherently dangerous - particularly so as it was against the warnings in all the usual finance text books.
How could they have been so naive?
Peter Murray
Kenmore Australia
Peter Murray, Brisbane, Australia
Blame for this crash in progress rests with the former Chancellor's restructuring of supervisory responsibility.
No one took responsibility or curtailed precarious and imprudent practices by Banks. The Government regulates in the public interest. Banks are the stability of the Financial System. Investors do and have a right to rely on the efficacy of that function.
This was his job. Gordon and his appointees failed us, as we now see in the failure of the credit market and the crash of shares.
For his own political ascent Gordon Brown would do nothing to assure there was a "stop" as well as a "go", or perhaps eyes were shut to the "off balance sheet liabilities" of Banks that reguators always come back on the balance sheet.
How will many more Rock's be paid for?
How will the housing market not go into freefall with liquidity seizing?
Gordon, will Britain be going to the IMF again in a year?
No near term turnaround is possible with these fundamentals.
Shane, London, UK
It doesnt take a geuius to work out that if you loan money at a ridiculously low rate that when the rate goes to a more sensible level you can expect trouble. Britain never got out of the last recession, Browns amazing chancellorship was created by handing out unsustainably low credit. We seem to have forgoten the millions of failed pensions and endowments caused again by overly low interest rates. Designer economics are unsafe.
kenny, hove,
I hope the directors of these banks award themselves billions of pounds of bonuses and 100 Million pound pensions !!
Robert Dein, Newcastle, UK
There is one big difference - in the 20s "the consumer", cities, states and nations were not in debts as they are today. And if there were, thoses interest-payments stayed inside the country.
Today USA is obliged to "transfer" more than 10 billion $ EACH MONTH in new T-bonds - to China, GCC and others - as interests alone. Paying interests on old debts with new debts.
There is no other exit than inflation...
Peter Vernunft, Berlin, Germany
The problem is US banks sold the tail end of these sub prime loans around the world, and foreign bankers bought US grade property loans on trust. Bad for the rest of the world but not good for US institutions which have now used up all the world's trust unloading rubbish on bankers who should have known better. We need government oversight on both sides of the Atlantic to restore trust in the monetary system.
Michael, Key West, Fl, USA
"China is awash with cash profits from selling the West cheap goods. With about a trillion dollars in the bank. Has anyone thought of approaching China, for say ... an overdraft?
Abid, Shipley, UK"
The trillion dollars IS the overdraft.
Andy, London, UK
Lets just hope the Directors, CEO's etc continue to award themselves bonuses and above inflation pay increases for the sensible lending strategies they've implemented over the last few years!
Peter Annand, Wellington, New Zealand
China is awash with cash profits from selling the West cheap goods. With about a trillion dollars in the bank. Has anyone thought of approaching China, for say ... an overdraft?
Abid, Shipley, UK
One thing we can be certain of is that the RBS exposure in the USA will be larger than Barclays.
Alistair, Edinburgh,
Since I can remember I have heard banks declaring billions in profits very quarter ; record numbers here record rips offs there.
What happened to these vast accumulated profits? Was it all distributed to shareholders? Was none of it put by for a rainy day? Don't you get rain in E.C.4. or E.1. or wherever it is these days?
Ripsnorter, Malaga, Spain
"Major proportion"?
US GDP is over $10,000billion. Europe must be similar. That implies net asset value of over $400,000billion at a p/e of 20.
This has been looking like the 1920s for twenty years at least. Any crash need be no worse than 1987, but dodgy economic policies should cease.
Michael Moore, Stockport,
When are banks going to realise that announcing "all's well" is simply not good enough. Northern Rock did this and now appears to be more or less bankrupt. The only solution is to own up as Barclays has now done. Obscurity creates uncertainty and uncertainty is the root of the problem
John Wilkie, Birmingham, UK
Every day now we seem to be confronted with another bank that has eleventy billion pounds of sub-prime debt as the world goes into credit meltdown.
Who knew that such a major proporion of the world's economy was invested in mortgages on homes in dodgier neighbourhoods in the US?
We aren't overdoing this a little bit are we?
Michael Hills, Singapore, singapore
Yep nothing new. The problem will get a lot worse before it gets better. Its either a 70s or a 1929 problem, only time will tell which one.
Stephen Fraser, London, UK