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IF a preoccupation with the weather is a curiously English phenomenon, then nothing could be as compelling a story as a “perfect storm” – a rare occurrence in which several weather conditions come together to destructive effect.
Gold, an important bellwether of the economic world, finds itself the beneficiary of such an occurrence, buoyed to within a whisker of the all-time high of $850 an ounce.
It was so different a decade ago. Up until 1999, the market for gold had been in decline and was characterised by flagging prices and volatility. The darkest hour for gold enthusiasts was on May 7, 1999 when the Treasury announced it was going to sell Britain’s gold reserves.
So what has changed? Part of the answer is that there have been deep structural changes in the commodity markets. The prices of most commodities have risen between threefold and tenfold in the past five years.
Yet despite high prices, global gold production is falling. South Africa, the world’s largest producer, is turning out barely 25% of what it did in 1970. Production elsewhere has also peaked – in America in 1998, in Australia in 1997, in Canada in 1991 and in Brazil in 1982.
So the supply of gold has fallen. But at the same time demand has risen. There are two reasons. First, more people are able to buy it and, second, new players have entered the market. Before 2000 gold traded on markets that were somewhat opaque. Gold was not too popular with investors. For every £1,000 they put into the financial markets, only £3 went to commodities – and gold was a subset of that. Gold funds launched in 2004 made life easier for investors. They could trade in them through the stock markets.
The liberalisation of the gold market in China in 2002 was another milestone that changed sentiment.
Before 2000, demand for jewellery influenced the gold price. A rise in the price was often met by a corresponding fall in jewellery sales, which dragged the gold price back down again. However, with new optimism for the future of gold, speculators are piling in. Just lately the gold price chart has gone from linear growth to exponential. The contributing factors are well known – a falling American dollar, geopolitical tensions, the banking credit crisis and inflationary fears.
So what is the forecast for gold? Three factors will dominate up to Christmas. First, the speculators, many of whom leapt on the bandwagon in the past few months, are keen to see gold break through $850 an ounce. Second, banks and traders who are shorting the dollar and going long on gold are keen to take profit ahead of the year-end. Third, pension funds are putting more money into commodities.
Our advice? Buy an umbrella.
Ross Norman is a director of Thebulliondesk.com, the leading online source of bullion market news, prices and research
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It is now February 11, 2009. Gold closed at $937.00. It is trading down a few dollars from its high today. Which was over $940.00. It looks like its on its way up again. Over its March 17, 2008 high of over $1000.00. I think that we will see about $1100 or more before the year is over.
jerrold minyard, chgo, usa
Okay, people. Junior minninng stock are a hit. Buy as many as possible. Silver minning stocks will make you very wealthy. Here are two:hecla mining co.(hl), coeur d alene mines corp.(cde). Yes, we can get carried away with this. We are now entering the biggest metals boom. I MEAN BOOOM!!!!!!. In the history of man. Silver, If you buy enough. Will make you a lot of money. Open option accounrts, and future option accounts. Play your calls and puts, before june of 08. Make your lovers happy, and have great middle life crisis. Boys the money has just now started to move. 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013(mainia). Think about putting your puts in on 2013. this is going to be a hell of a ride. Buy all gold and silver related assets. See you in the ILANDS. After this boom buy real estate, it will be very cheap. It now is the day after my birthday. feb 9 2008. bought a 52inch sony bra lcd. life is great and will get greater.
JERROLD MINYARD, chicago, america/illinois
We are headed for hard times, the average american has'nt a clue. Some people will wake up when the yellow metal(gold) hits $1000.00 oz. This will push the price higher. We may see gold hit close to $1800.00 before june of 2008. This is after all the short sellers have to jump back in to cover their donkeys.
Don't forget silver the poormans gold. It is trading at about $16.59 as this is being written:2/7/2008. This is a bargan for one ozounce of silver. If the average american had the knowledge or had someone to give them the education on buying metal., This would make our nations citizentry, and the economy strong. There is a big storm on the horizen, and the eye of the storm is headed towards the american economy. This will devastate the world economy, and after the storm other world nation will not associate with america because she will be bankrupt. Left by her self to climb out of her altered GREATNESS???????
JERROLD MINYARD, chicago, america/illinois
How can anyone have confidence in a Central Bank system with no substance to back up their currency??
How can anyone trust a Central Bank when they withhold information and lie to the people.
How can anyone trust a Central Bank or any other entity with no substance, which lies in order to perpetuate an illusion of solvency?
With Gold (in ever shorter supply), as the only viable alternative to such a system, is it any wonder that that people are prepared to pay a premium for the security it offers??
Peter Goldman, london,
In keeping with the old adage of "buy on anticipation, and sell on confirmation", the question becomes when to sell gold rather than when to buy it. We all have had the opportunity over the past few years to buy gold at attractive prices, which continues to exist today I believe, but when do you onload the need for this safety hedge?
The answer, of cousre, is right after the market has fully absorbed the worst portion of the credit meltdown news, which is yet to come ("the Confirmation").
That news will be a federal bailout of Fannie Mae.
Sell gold then, and place those funds in high-quality, long-term corporate bonds and treasuries, as the good times will still be five plus years away. The next anticipation? The drag on the U.S. economy caused by baby boomer retirement, and underfunded social security and medicare/ medicade.
The large U.S. corporations during this time will do better than the U.S. Government.
Bill Fischer, Mission Viejo, California
its not the gold rising in price,its the u.s.dollar depreciating to curb the ever present huge trade deficit of u.s.,gold have universal value with universally growing demand for a very limited supply. with george bush as u.s.president,the u.s.dollar losses its attractiveness to the rest of the world bcoz of their policy,gold could be expected to hit $1000/oz til the term of bush ends on year 2010. same thing that we expect the dollar depreciation to help reverse their trade deficit. the world economy need to survive not because of one country only,its the universal cause that will dictate our market forces. for the benefit of the rest of the world.
Zeus Ting, binondo,chinatown, phils
I believe gold has a new , more sound foundation to support new highs plus much more. Percentagewise, silver has traditionally moved up even higher than gold whenever gold booms. This is why I'm streaching way further out on the limb via gold and silver. All investing is gambling, I'm making my largest bet ever; soar or crash, live or die, risk and return, ect, The odds are with me. Dips such as today start to make great buying opertunities.
I'm just trying to figure where or what to move to after the metals run.
Bill Goett, Linden, Michigan, USA
gold will reach $900 plus by the end of this year 2007 and will cross $1000 per ounce by the beginning of march 2007. This is due to growing economy of India and China and the dollar losses its international market value.
zain, Riyadh, SaudiArabia/Riyadh
The fact that there are only five comments on this gold story speaks volumes. We are a good 6 years into this bull market in gold and yet Joe Public still has no clue about, or interest in, gold as an investment.
In addition, the mainstream media, the financial services industry and Western governments around the world continue to trash gold at every opportunity to as they truly understand the threat that it poses to the current financial system.
Jerrold Minyard below is correct. The US economy is in a dire state right now and yet this reality is being witheld and covered up as much as possible. Eventually, and that day is not far off now, the truth will come out...and it won't be pretty.
All these factors confirm that this bull market in gold has a long way to go yet...many years in my opinion.
Nick, Montreal, Canada
Funnily enough I also used this anology in refernce to an article in 'this is money' which warned on the dangers of the investment in China shares.
there is is fear in the market places, but the main aim now is to preserve wealth and value. Gold is only a store in value, but to be honest, its value is grossly over valued by speculation. In the modern era of credit markets ,where confidence and faith in lenders of last resort is capital. gold is only useful if you have it in your pocket to exchange it for something at the place it is exchanged. Any thing else is a promise that it will be delivered at some time or place (China, Africa or London).
People have over speculated, Banks recklessly lent, both have lied. there is a fear of not having enough: food, resources or houses. the 'the moral hazard' is that there needs to be companies, BTL, or credit card junkies to pay the cost. They have flown so high, their waxed wings melt, now let them touch reality and Earth.
Gold finger, Gloucester, Uk
In my view, the recent interest is in keeping with its historical role - to have a store of value not dependent on the claims on others. The recent derivative unwinding and concerns about the value of the dollar will only exacerbate the mistrust in the stated value of paper claims. Gold will not go to the moon, but I could see gold temporarily spiking to $3K while debt gets wiped off the books. That is why I'm half in gold and half shorting stocks.
Gold Follower, Millbrae, CA
The old, traditional rules apply. Free enterprise, hard work, and I mean , Hard Work, and faith in God, that is, lots of prayer! Try it, you'll like it!
r, Denver, USA
John - using a benchmark of 2003 is misleading.
Timing is everything .I have only been buying over the last 12 months. Buying now in the wake of the credit crunch is when it will pay off. Money supply in UK is increasing by 15% - If thats not contributing towards inflation I dont know what is.
Look back 5 years from now and see how Gold will perform against the FTSE.
Peter Goldman, london,
The Gold price is going to go crazy .I run my own pension and 50% is now in Gold related shares. I have no faith in the large Pension Companies as I dont believe they have my interests in mind.
I am buying junior mining shares on AIM market in London. They are the most undervalued internationally.
It is considered a high risk strategy, but with the price of gold rising there is also a very high reward potential.
Tiny Solomon Gold shares went from around 5p to 32p in in 3 days last week alone!!
Others with similar potential for major discovery are Ariana Resources and Greatland Gold.
In a year or two down the line, when the media spot light turns on the sector, this will turn into a Casino but for now there are true gains to be made as prices are only just starting to go move.
Peter Goldman, london,
Gold is priced in dollars, relative to the pounds it has risen little more than the average FTSE index tracker since 2003, lets not get too carried away. Same goes for oil, what we should be looking at to remove the dollar from the equation is oil barrals per gold ounce, that has remainded static at about 10.
john, cambridge, UK
Pension funds don't invest in commodies. It is a Government law. There are a lot of pension funds that have invested into hedge funds. There are a large, and I do mean large number of hedge funds that own a lot of subprime bonds. So, you'll see a large ands again I do mean large number of hedge funds go belly up. Because of the subprime bonds that are already junk bonds. So, what do you think will happen to people when they get ready to retire. Our country is bankrupt. The dollar is at an all time low. Our homes have no value. Oil is a hundred dollars a barrel. We have a credit crisis, on our way to a world wide currency crisis. What will happen to the middle class of america?
jerrold minyard, chicago, illinois
gold must rise to 1000 dollar
manmeet, delhi, india