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Britain’s financial system is vulnerable to new shocks in the wake of its most severe challenge for decades, and banks and authorities must learn the lessons of the crisis, the Bank of England says today.
In its first detailed analysis of the squeeze that has engulfed credit markets since the summer, the Bank says that financial institutions have become more fragile and that the availability of credit may tighten. In turn, it sounds a warning that tighter lending conditions could spell serious fallout for the economy, with sub-prime borrowers and highly-leveraged companies particularly exposed.
The Bank’s unexpectedly gloomy report goes on to warn investors that share prices in Britain and the US could prove “vulnerable to any further revision in growth prospects”. A further danger is that the dollar could fall sharply if adverse sentiment towards US securities persists, it says.
Sir John Gieve, the Bank Deputy Governor, admitted that although it had expected some of the problems, “the speed and ferocity” of the global disruptions “had not been anticipated by firms or authorities”.
The Bank’s half-yearly Financial Stability Review, published today, says that the turmoil “has proved to be the most severe challenge to the UK financial system for several decades” and calls for the UK’s crisis management tools to be strengthened. It says that “serious fragilities” have been exposed within the so-called originate and distribute business model used by many financial firms to parcel up debt.
British banks are especially vulnerable. They face a bill of almost £150 billion, hitting their profitability, if the credit crisis forces them to set aside capital against their exposure to structured investment vehicles (SIVs), leveraged loans and mortgage-backed securities, the Bank says.
The banks have promised liquidity lines worth about £109 billion to their SIVs and other off-balance sheet vehicles. If these provisions have to be drawn down and become an on-balance sheet exposure, the full amount in risk capital could have to be put aside. This could come on top of £15.5 billion for leveraged loan risks that have been kept on the banks’ books, and £22.8 billion against exposure to mortgage-backed securities. The Bank points out that the £109 billion bill alone was equal to 35 per cent of the banks’ on-balance sheet loans to British nonfinancial companies.
If banks now fail to adapt their business models and carry on as before, confidence will return but at the risk of a repeat of the market turbulence “potentially on an even larger scale”, the Bank says. It adds that there is evidence that some banks are already loosening their standards once again.
In a shot across the bows of the private equity industry, the report says firms subject to leveraged buyouts will be particularly sensitive to the rise in the cost of debt. The likelihood of a sharp rise in corporate distress in this area has risen, the Bank says.
The report singles out commercial property as “particularly prone to shocks and to rises in the cost of finance”, noting the high levels of borrowing by the sector.
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Whatever happened to prudence? Or did she ever exist?
mike, Midlands, UK
Geez - even Blind Freddy could have seen this mess coming. Trouble is most people from the top down are blinded by greed when a bubble is inflating, thinking all is a totally new ball game. This ponzi scheme has happened many times before in history - it always ends in tears, only this time it is bigger and bolder than ever. The fallout is going to really, really hurt a lot of people. That old barometer of economic well being - gold - is telling us something folks. Got any ?
Bob, Canberra, Australia
Sell the remaining gold bullion in order to keep the ship tip top.
After all what use is it?
It doesnt pay a yield.
Harry, Glasgow,
"Tin Hats everyone"....Take cover!
Mike, Berlin,
Oh dont worry about it, Brown, King and Darling are watching out for us.
They knew this was going to happen and have a cunning plan to save us any pain.
No, really , they have our best interests at heart.
Paul P, london,
I'm sure there will be plenty of layoffs but how many top management heads are rolling?
And when is Applegarth to be moved out of Northern Rock? Should he not have the honour to resign?
David, Poole,
Put all the financial gurus in a room and NON of them will know what;s going to happen tomorrow. Putting your trust in so called "financial experts" is like crossing the road with your eyes closed.
Doug George, Antibes, France
There has been too much speculation in property, driven by historically low interest rates, and a weak US dollar offsetting the actual effect of rising oil prices. The British public have been conned in to thinking the good times are here to stay, and bricks and mortar are as safe as houses.....reinforced by TV property development soft porn shows, buy it - flip it - make a profit....House values are relative, and any rise in value is not a liquid asset - you have to sell to benefit, but still need a roof over your head. Now comes the truth of were the UK economy really stands, but don't ask me I used to work in manufacturing!
Rental John, Shrewsbury, Shropshire
I'm a mortgage underwriter in the U.S. and you are totally correct this was foreseeable. We in risk management have been asking questions from the start, but sales wanted their bonuses. Upper management really wanted their bonuses so even when we(as risk analysist) knew the loan was going to default we were told to fund the loan. I feel the U.S. has deceived the entire world with our lending practices and should be allow to collapse on our own. I have been in my career for 11 years and was (while writing this) just informed I have been laid off. If you think it is bad now wait for a little while it is only going to get worse. With layoffs happening daily and unemployment (despite the gov. numbers) going up, even the "good" mortgages (such as mine) are going to have problems. Just wait until all the Option ARMS start maturing. I have also read that the same problems effecting residentail mortgage is now said to be in the commerical real estate market as well. comsumer loans as well.
Rob, tempe, AZ, USA
Serves them b***** right, the warnings both to government (Gordon McSporran) and to the so called professional financial/ banking system have been on the cards for years. Their incompetence and lack of foresight and sheer greed is on record for all to see. For me, the best bit of news is that Broon did not call an election as he will be forced to face the (discordant) music over the next two years+. - Poor old Darling is the fall guy surely he sees that, never mind, there is always the gold plated pension for them both.
Victor M., Malaga, Spain
seems to me this was foreseeable, if you inflate a balloon (or balance sheet) sooner of later it is going to pop. To say this âhad not been anticipated by firms or authoritiesâ is a bit poor, they all new it could happen but no one wanted to be a spoil sport and stop the merrygoround. btw the IMF report I saw today actually has a picture of the merrygoround :)
Now they are going to create a super SIV to hide even more mistakes. .... for now :P
anyone work in a highly leveraged business? :(
derek, Leeds,
Recipe for a market crash?
Pat, FL, USA/ExPat,
Most of this article is obvious.If you add up the national debt and consumer debt there appears to be a slight problem.
Steve, Eure, France